It will be interesting to see who will oppose treaty here - Sinn Fein - probably
- greens - probably not now they are in Government, but they would have before

However the big problem is a possible protest vote against Ahern.  It will be important for the debate to separate out domestic from EU issues.  I think this can and will be done, but there have been some really silly comments from Ahern and Commissioner McCreevy to the effect that we will be the laughing stock of Europe if we vote no.  People really don't respond well to that sort of blackmail - they will expect a debate on the facts.  The risk is a very low pro-EU turnout which will allow even a relatively small but highly mobilised anti-EU vote to make it a relatively close vote.

Index of Frank's Diaries