Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
What do you think is my premise?

I did not cite a poll that I knew from before. I just went and found what is probably the best source of opinion polls (CIS: Spain's Institute for Sociological Investigations) and found the most recent poll on European attitudes (2004: the year of the latest European Parliament elections). I then interpreted the result. You disagree with my interpretation. What I was after was basically a measure of the strength of the sentiment, not a yes/no answer as to whether it exists.

For good measure, I just went and found the previous analogous poll, from 1999 (previous EP elections). The results were as follows:

Out of 2491 respondents,
Mostly European 5.2%
Equally Spanish and European 21.5%
Mostly Spanish 65.4%
Neither (Spontaneous) 7.1%

One of the advantages of CIS polls is, clearly, that they provide you with time series of the same questions.

So I would say the shift towards a European identity is strong, considering it's happened in only 5 years. Not that I expect you to agree.

For reference:

I found a 2004 Spanish survey on attitudes to the EU. Out of a sample of 2488 people,
6.9% feel primarily European
27.0% feel equally Spanish and European
59.3% feel primarily Spanish
6.0% feel neither
If you put this on a logit basis you have
Mostly European goes from -2.90 to -2.60
Equally Spanish and European goes from -1.30 to -0.99
Mostly Spanish goes from 0.64 to 0.38
Neither goes from -2.57 to -2.75

If I had to make an extrapolation based on this I'd predict for 2009
Mostly European 9%
Equally Spanish and European 34%
Mostly Spanish 53%
Neither 5%
with "mostly Spanish" dropping below 50% by 2014 and below "both equally" by 2019. By the time I'm 50 the "mostly European" group would be at 20% and the "mostly Spanish" group at 34%

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 17th, 2007 at 08:25:31 AM EST
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