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The Serb reaction to u unilateral declaration of independence by its KLA government in Pristina will probably be twofold:
  1. Recognize the region North of the Ibar river as remaining within Serbia.
  2. Recognizing Republika Srpska as fully independent from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Russian role in this will be to
  1. Militarily support the Serbs, notably by supplying a couple of battalions of Igla SAMs and ground troops.
  2. Recognize: Transdnestr, South Ossetia, Abkhazia in the short term.
by vladimir on Thu Dec 20th, 2007 at 02:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know much about Serb reaction but suspect they will at least wait and try to persuade Russia to recognise Serbs enclaves in Balkans first as such move by Serbia alone will close the door of EU.

Russia also will take her time to evaluate pros and contras of any shift in policy and will test possible reactions of her recognition from friendly countries inside CIS and in the third world.

by FarEasterner on Thu Dec 20th, 2007 at 06:28:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe the Autonomous Republic of Crimea will also declare independence from Ukraine? Now wouldn't that be interesting?
by vladimir on Thu Dec 20th, 2007 at 06:44:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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