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Poland is still far enough from the command networks that a ballistic missile launch would have to be big and register in the early warning system. It's a bit borderline for the range of low-altitude cruise missiles, and they would have longer flight time with opportunity of detection by the Russians.

The truth is, first-strike-and-home-free will just never cut it against a country as big and industrialized as Russia, even in a deteriorated state of infrastructures. I think it is best this way, but junior just doesn't get it.

Actually there is one thing that could work, it is space-prepositionned stealth warheads (talking hundreds in LEO here). The present system of treaties forbids it, and we have no reason to believe that any of if has been prepared to this day (military launches can be accounted by spysats and comsats mostly, no need for this conspiracy theory). Of course, these things can change, but it would take a long time.

Pierre

by Pierre on Fri Dec 21st, 2007 at 04:18:27 AM EST
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While a Goldeneye scenario would be... interesting, wouldn't it also tend to kinda fry your own orbital toys? I mean, a LEO detonation would send a lot of unstable isotopes and charged particles swanning around in Earths magnetic field, and those would do - ah - Bad Things to the electronics of any satellite unfortunate enough to get in their way, wouldn't they?

'Course, any scenario involving a nuclear (first) strike is plenty nasty enough to make that a minor concern, but if the point was to use it as a "get out of nuclear war free" card... Maybe not so much?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 21st, 2007 at 05:06:11 AM EST
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I was more thinking of a "MIRV on patrol" scheme. The warhead has small de-orbitation booster, a re-entry nose, and it detonates near the ground like a conventional MIRV. It's just that would be designed to remain several years in orbit, undetected, before the strike order. The "undetected" part is difficult, especially if you have a hundred. There is basically no background noise in space at that depth of field, so a radar return is unmistakable (the doppler and delay allow a ground radar to filter anything that comes from within the atmosphere, or GEO satellites. then the "ordinary" LEO are all mapped in public databases for the security of civilian missions, anything extra has to be military or alien). The warhead would have to be coated with B2-like radar-absorbent material - which has never been tested in space for any kind of extended duration, to my knowledge. Then you need some dish for communications (which makes for a fine radar mirror), and some power source (if not solar panels, then a RTG but then you give off heat). Eventually, some way of arranging the unnoticed disposal of the warhead on the ground after a decade (the orbit will decay, and you don't want it to fall on a random location).

So I think the case for the enforcement of the space demilitarization treaties is quite clear: nobody can build this up today and remain unnoticed for too long.

Pierre

by Pierre on Fri Dec 21st, 2007 at 05:26:46 AM EST
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