Poland is still far enough from the command networks that a ballistic missile launch would have to be big and register in the early warning system. It's a bit borderline for the range of low-altitude cruise missiles, and they would have longer flight time with opportunity of detection by the Russians.

The truth is, first-strike-and-home-free will just never cut it against a country as big and industrialized as Russia, even in a deteriorated state of infrastructures. I think it is best this way, but junior just doesn't get it.

Actually there is one thing that could work, it is space-prepositionned stealth warheads (talking hundreds in LEO here). The present system of treaties forbids it, and we have no reason to believe that any of if has been prepared to this day (military launches can be accounted by spysats and comsats mostly, no need for this conspiracy theory). Of course, these things can change, but it would take a long time.

Pierre