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Just yesterday Poland was a member of the Warsaw Pact. And today it's part of NATO. Given the absence of a Russian military threat in Europe, America's military buildup on Russia's borders can and is likely interpreted as a preparation for war.

While I don't particularly care for war-by-proxy or war in general either, I think that the Russian military perceives America's muscle flexing on its borders as preparation for war. After all... real men want to go to Moscow, right?

Given that we've established that the US military is managed by generals who have little or no civilian governance (i.e. Wesley Clark, ...) and that American diplomats are prone to making terrible "misjudgments" (i.e. Madeleine Albright, ...) which lead to armed conflict, the likelihood of war breaking out on ex-Soviet territory between Russian and US (backed) forces some time in the near future seems more than real. In the different scenarios envisaged, this seems most likely in Abkhazia, Transdnestr or Crimea.

So, while the US is surrounding Russia, preparing for war, you seem to suggest that a Russian military reaction in Poland should be ruled out... because Poland is a member of NATO? What difference does that make given the situation? I think that the Russians are seriously considering a strike against the US military, either directly - as would be the case in Poland and the Czech Republic, or indirectly, as would be the case in Kosovo, the Bosnian Serb Republic or Iran/Iraq. Why? Because Karpov used to say that the best defense was always in good offence.

by vladimir on Sat Dec 22nd, 2007 at 09:20:24 AM EST
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