In any event, a 12% immediate bump following a strong IA victory would be no real surprise. However, the challenge for Edwards coming first in New Hampshire is that even if he finishes first, the second place candidate could well get a small bump out of beating the third place candidate, so Edwards could be chasing a rising target, in either case.

The intangible there is that Edwards framing and campaign messaging is the most direct one to get across to a Democratic primary audience, so he might be able to get more than the ordinary NH bump just out of the flurry of coverage the evening of and the morning after an IA win.

But right now, its just too close to call for a caucus, given that even if we knew the first preferences going in, we wouldn't know the results coming out. Add to that the fact that both Clinton and Obama are banking on large numbers of supporters who have never caucused before, and Thursday can't come soon enough for me.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.