The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
I'd probably be in that category - in Spain specially a "christian" politician would be suspect of being Opus Dei.
And, in France, I imagine strongly secular voters will shun a Christian Democrat. But if it' Bayrou-Sarkozy in the second round we'd have "better a Christian than racaille". "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Only if you map French politics on to a broader European sphere can you say, for example, Jacques Delors was a Christian Democrat, or François Bayrou is a CD. Whereas Delors was a member of the PS, and Bayrou's entire career has been spent under the Gaulliste wing. Right-left, you choose.
It's perfectly reasonable for Bayrou to want to break free of the left-right divide, and play the "centre" and what endlessly comes up in French politics, (and never works), which is called l'ouverture, (=opening up to the other side) - which he is allowing to fly as a kite with talk of his choosing DSK as PM if elected. And, who knows, in the present state of disillusionment with the political world, he just might pull off an electoral coup.
Then the chickens would come home to roost. One, he'd need a parliamentary majority, when currently his small party relies on the UMP for its 30-or-so seats in the Assembly. Two, governments composed of right and left ministers would have difficulty holding together - in the past, l'ouverture has always meant token jobs for one side of the divide, real power for the other, and in this case Bayrou would certainly not be handing over any real power to the left. (DSK kite notwithstanding - that's just an easy way to look more "open").
I listened to Bayrou earlier this morning on France Inter. Asked clearly if he was saying the UDF was the pivotal centre point of French politics, he replied yes. And seemed in a hurry to move on, that point of view is so plainly hard to argue.
Regarding the parliamentary majority, clearly if Bayrou won the presidency the UDF would capture a lot more of the vote in the parliamentary elections. If that, as you imply, would not be enough to win, which of PS (under DSK?) or the UMP (under Sarko?) would be the largest party, and could you have a Government with the President's party as junior partner of the Prime Minister's? Also, would the party of the presidential runner-up do better or worse than the one that didn't make it past the first round? "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
There doesn't seem to be (imo) an exact centre point of French politics. Why should there be? In saying the UDF (or the group that preceded it) was not that point, (supposing it existed), I wasn't referring to its current size but its clear, 5th-Republic-long positioning on the right as team-mate/rival of the successive Gaullist parties. You don't change that with a few energetic speeches.
The rest of your questions illustrate the kind of difficulty Bayrou would have as president...
About centre points - let me get quantitative for a minute. Identify the main issues (axes) of the political spectrum. Assume that positions can be approximately ranked linearly on each issue, and find the median voter position for each. That's the political centre. Theis may not be very meaningful if you need a lot of different, very narrow issues in order to have linear axes.
So, in the 2007 French Presidential campaign, what seem to be the two or three key issues (and this could be something like 'can we have a woman president' rather than, say economic left/right, if that's the turn the campaign takes in the voters' view), and where's the centre? "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
My point is not to deny Sarko is further right than Bayrou, or Royal further left. It is to say Bayrou is right-ist in his leanings, and historically on the right in terms of his personal tradition and political career - including the symbiosis with the Gaullistes in which he and his movement have always lived (until his decision to break off to make this run). That was the meaning of the journalist's question about the centre - are you really trying to tell us you're the centre, and not the right?
Now, the electorate may be sufficiently fooled by his posture to put him in Round Two. But political parties and personnel do not have short memories like the TV-gazing masses. They won't give him a free ride.
The truth, imo? Bayrou at the Elysée would mean he had created a new balance on the right. He would ally with the UMP again, but this time on new terms, with him as boss. I'd rather see him than Sarko in that position, but then again I'd rather see neither.
(Otherwise, I know you can produce a graphic representation of political views and thus define a "centre". I think it may be useful in a time series, to compare changes and trends. Not as anything other than an oversimplification, though, if it is meant as a description of the extremely complex dynamic system we might call history.)
You seem to be implying that there is no centre, and if there is, it's not Bayrou. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
I think your question is really for another diary, and later on, when major issues do in fact become clearer and more clearly discussed. For the moment, it's more a war of position. There are something like sixty days to go...
Bayrou has consistently been to the right of that party. In 1994 he introduced the reform of the Falloux law, allowing the easier financing of private schools by collectivité locales, and got one million strong demonstrations in the streets... And now you find teachers voting for him. Oh well. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by Frank Schnittger - May 31
by Oui - May 30 15 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 23 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 27 3 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 5 22 comments
by Oui - May 13 66 comments
by Carrie - Apr 30 7 comments
by Oui - Jun 17 comments
by Oui - May 3125 comments
by Oui - May 3015 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 273 comments
by Oui - May 2726 comments
by Oui - May 24
by Frank Schnittger - May 233 comments
by Oui - May 1366 comments
by Oui - May 910 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 522 comments
by Oui - May 450 comments
by Oui - May 312 comments
by Oui - Apr 30273 comments
by Carrie - Apr 307 comments
by Oui - Apr 2647 comments
by Oui - Apr 889 comments
by Oui - Mar 19144 comments