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The complete report from CSA is available online (PDF): http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070220a-intentions-de-vote-a-l-election-presidentielle-d e-2007-vague-16.pdf

Interesting tidbits from the second round polling:

  • Royal polls better with men, whereas Sarkozy polls better with women
  • Royal kicks ass in the 18-29 age group (and wins in the 30-49 age group), whereas Sarkozy dominates the 65+ crowd
  • Royal polls better with educated people, whereas Sarkozy polls better with people with little or no education


"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 06:36:19 AM EST
I was really surprises:

  • women at home: 24% Royal 76% Sarkozy (first round 15 vs 53)
  • retired: 35% Royal 65% Sarkozy (first round 21 vs 36)

Royal wins or really close for every single other category.
by Laurent GUERBY on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 07:59:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno, I would imagine many housewives are very conservative or at least have a rather traditionalist view on gender roles. They probably wouldn't vote for a woman president, particularly not one who's not properly married!

That said, the CSA reports that they didn't interview a whole lot of people in certain categories, so it might be hard to tell how representative a number that is.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 08:37:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The wife at home has also become a privilege of the well off... who tend to vote Sarkozy.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 08:40:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent point. Lower class families can't really afford  having one spouse not working.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 08:42:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Since they include "women at home" in the "inactive" category, it really means women with no intention of looking for work - not the unemployed

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 09:04:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This reminds me of the first Socialist government of the  1st Spanish Republic giving women the vote, only to be voted out at the next election.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 08:50:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
These #s are largely unchanged for those sub-groups since last winter. Royal's support has been very weak all along among older, more conservative women. >55 has been a right-wing constituency for the entire 5th Republic, which makes no sense given what the right wants to do to retirement age and pensions.

But the race wont' be won by winning over these groups; it'll be won by winning over better-educated, better-off, younger urban men and women and by increasing turnout among traditional left-voting but lazy (in 02) constituencies among students, teachers, civil servants.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 09:51:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, given these are the only groups where Sarkozy is winning and overall he is winning, I guess they're important in numbers.

I'd be curious as of the real reason for the massive right-wing vote of those people. Inheritance tax? Paris-Match+TF1 all day?

by Laurent GUERBY on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 11:03:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
These generations are those that came of age in the 50's and early 60's.

They grew up idolising De Gaulle, at a time where the left were evil commies whose tanks were coming from the left, and thus tend to vote to the right.

They are also frightened by crime and violence (that arguably they know mostly thanks to TF1). They also never understood the dislike of "authority" by post-1968 generations.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Feb 22nd, 2007 at 12:14:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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