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that you would even acknowledge this supposed "common wisdom" as it becomes clearer and clearer that it has no real basis in truth and is just a big circle-jerk of the media establishment.

Polls have moved by just a couple of points - and the more noticeable trend is actually that of the increase for Bayrou; meanwhile the media are beginning to pay attention to SR's efforts to gather proposals from the general population, something snickered at by the Parisian elites but obviously very popular wherever it is taking place around France.

As to Sarko appearing more to the left, I'm a bit surprised by that claim after his extravagant trip to the expatriate community in London and his public love affair with Blair.

But hey, maybe I'm blinded by my prejudices!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 12:37:06 PM EST
Well, it's always possible to dismiss the noise as a media "circle-jerk". I think it's wiser to take the mass media into account in a major election.

If the perception takes hold that Royal is in free fall, it will be hard to stop. DSK said that the other day, which was kind of friendly of him.

However, it doesn't correspond to the facts, as you say and as I said above.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 12:59:52 PM EST
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I don't dismiss the perception, just its reality, and thus kindly suggesting that we do nothing ourselves to perpetuate it!

But I am increasingly wondering if that very perception is not actually helping SR, as it amplifies, in the provinces, the idea that the elite is out of touch and only preoccupied wiht itself (and, to some extent, machist) and it reinforces her appeal.

We'll see...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 01:11:58 PM EST
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You know, blithely ignoring perceptions as channeled by the media didn't get Jospin far... I think we should face them, discuss them, debunk them, attack them.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 02:36:13 PM EST
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One thing about Jospin (beyond the competence is boring/he's not lefty enough/let's have some major league scaremongering) was that it looked like he would survive not winning - he did not want the job enough.

That cannot be said of SR. She has also successfully neutralised the scaremongering angle. The past 3 weeks have been full of "boules puantes", and ugly non-campaigning campaigning. The Sarkozystes complain about SR's supposed lack of a programme, when she's announced both a date and a method to get there (the "listening phase"). He HAS announced a programme, and yet it is not discussed at all. I hope the contrast after 11 February will be stark.

He has nothing. He has nothing to run on (he spends his time saying that everything is dark and bad - as if he hadn't been the n°2 of the government for the past 5 years) and nothing to sell. So it's going to be negative campaigning and dirty tricks all the time, and I'm not sure it will help him, because in that context, it is Le Pen that he has to beat, not SR.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 03:04:20 PM EST
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I agree with all of that. But as you see above, I point out that Sarko has a - frankly risible - "programme", and he is only getting away with "I have a programme she doesn't" because the media bosses are with him and the employees are scared and/or naturally submissive.

And that will go on. Royal's programme will be carved into little pieces. Sarko's won't be examined. This has to be fought. Believe it or not, down here in the provinces far from the Parisian elites, ;), people consume those very same media, particularly TF1.

Why, after all, should we fight CW and media perceptions in the English-language media and not within France?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 04:02:55 PM EST
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