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It's possible, I guess, but not at all probable.  What we're seeing right now is convergence -- that is, countries like China taking advantage of their enormous labor pools and gradually catching up via the import of our knowledge.  (That import is why productivity growth is so high in China right now.  That, along with its massive low-skill, underemployed labor pool, is what is driving the stunning growth rates -- that combination of underutilized capacity and increasing knowledge.)  Eventually, whether it's twenty years down the road or two hundred years, China will catch up to us.  It will become developed, meaning that it will move close to capacity in the way America and Europe have, at which point economic improvement becomes a game of productivity growth.  By that time, my sense is that regions like Africa will probably be roughly at the point that China is at today, but that's just a crystal-ball sort of guess, obviously, and, not being in possession of a crystal ball, that prediction should, of course, be taken with the proper quantity of salt.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Feb 5th, 2007 at 11:11:54 AM EST
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