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A good Frenchman | 49 comments (49 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Sarkozy (4.00 / 2)
has officially called for the signatures to be provided to Le Pen (i.e. there will be no retorsions against rightwing mayors that give their signature to Le Pen). He is worried that, should Le Pen not get his 500 signatures, he will call explicitly to vote against Sarkozy, blaming him directly for his absence on the ballot - which would bring more voices to everybody but Sarkozy.

I expect that it would be a pretty big crisis if Le Pen were not on the ballot.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:31:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)
The latest Ifop poll (Le Monde article) seems to suggest Sarko would be the primary beneficiary if Le Pen isn't on the ballot:

Sarko: 28% (-1)
Bayrou: 23% (+4)
Royal: 23% (-2.5)
Le Pen: 13% (+1)
(Villiers: 1%)

Without Le Pen:
Sarko: 34.5%
Bayrou: 25%
Royal: 24%
(Villiers: 3.5%)

Doesn't take a denouncement by Le Pen into account of course. That's the first poll putting Bayrou at parity with Royal.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 01:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)
Why do you say Sarkozy would be the prime beneficiary? I just don't see it, especially if Le Pen calls for a vote to punish Sarkozy.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 01:54:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)
I'm just saying that that poll seems to suggest Sarko gains the most in Le Pen's absence. But obviously that's just a poll. Whether that occurs in reality is of course  a different matter.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 02:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)
Cambadelis, who has always struck me as one of two guys at the PS who doesnt' have his head you know where (LeGall the other; the only two to predict Jospin might finish behind LePen in 02) had an interesting quote in Liberation this week -- that LePen probably already has his 500 signatures but may not run, preferring to campaign informally against "the system" and claim he was undemocratically (sic) exlcluded, rather than finish 4th.

Sarokzy's camp is trying to avoid that outcome at all costs, because he needs LePens' voters in the second round if its Royal -- and moreover because LePen not being on the ballot and blaming the incumbent government for keeping him out could very well put Bayrou over the hump ahead of Royal in the first round -- and likely give him the Presidency.

What remains to be seen is if Sarkozy and the UMP will be held responsible for explicitly calling for mayors to sign for LePen.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 03:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A good Frenchman | 49 comments (49 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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