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The latest Ifop poll (Le Monde article) seems to suggest Sarko would be the primary beneficiary if Le Pen isn't on the ballot:

Sarko: 28% (-1)
Bayrou: 23% (+4)
Royal: 23% (-2.5)
Le Pen: 13% (+1)
(Villiers: 1%)

Without Le Pen:
Sarko: 34.5%
Bayrou: 25%
Royal: 24%
(Villiers: 3.5%)

Doesn't take a denouncement by Le Pen into account of course. That's the first poll putting Bayrou at parity with Royal.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 01:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do you say Sarkozy would be the prime beneficiary? I just don't see it, especially if Le Pen calls for a vote to punish Sarkozy.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 01:54:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm just saying that that poll seems to suggest Sarko gains the most in Le Pen's absence. But obviously that's just a poll. Whether that occurs in reality is of course  a different matter.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 02:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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