But I'm actually more worried about a Bayrou vs Royal, which, along with the Le Pen vs Royal, seems to me more likely.

I don't see Royal not on the second round. Precisely because it's too easily conceivable (the 2002 precedent, and the current wave of wishful polls and commentary), it won't happen. The others, on the other hand...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes