Jerome, how do you see Royal/LePen in the second round? Are you presuming both will get a lot more support than they're showing now in the polls?

My sense is that the "April 21 effect" (left voters voting for Royal in the 1st round out of a sense of culpability for not voting Jospin in 02) is vastly overrated. Outside of Parisian professionals (and admittedly tahts a big slice of the PS electorate), is there any evidence of such a phenomenon? Moreover, any evidence that such voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions (ie, saying Bayrou but will return to Royal on election day?).

My view is that unless Bayrou stumbles badly, which could happen when he starts to get hit hard next week, he'll benefit from the late surge that many are expecting (based on 02) to go to LePen.

I think its a Bayrou/Sarkozy 2nd round but I still think Sarkozy wins.