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That Sarko wins in a match-up in the 2nd round. Every poll I've seen shows him trailing in that match up by 10 points.

My sense has been for two years this:

  1. the French want a "different" kind of President who provides a rupture;

  2. Sarko was the only candidate offering this, for two years;

  3. But Sarko is not liked or trusted by the electorate;

  4. If a viable alternatitve offering change appears, he s/he will win;

  5. Sego looked like she might be that candidate last year, but she has proved to be a fairly standard issue socialist

  6. Bayrou has now broken through an important threshold and to me seems the perfect candidate for what the French electorate wants - at least, say, the middle third; I feel his momentum will build on itself and attract voters from across the spectrum

  7. This could also have the effect of splitting Sego's left flank;

  8. I also think a lot of the undecided/fuck you LePen vote will go to Bayrou

  9. Bayrou's main challenge in the 2nd tour will be to hold his ground; Sarko's only real attack willl come about his ability to form a national unity gov't; I've already seen this tact previewed by nervous Sarko supporters elsewhere
by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 04:57:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ben, my sense is based on the fact that elections are won by and large in the preparation, and Sarkozy and the UMP are much better prepared, in terms of having identified target audiences and in getting their message to them. Royal keeps switching back and forth between trying to appeal to centrist voters (last fall and Jan until she fell behind) and the left (most of Feb and until this week) and now back to centrists. Bayrou is improvising daily.

Sarkozy though knows he needs only to hold enough of the center and is systemicatically pickup off bits of the center/left electorate (eg, he has cultivated Jewish leaders, moderate Muslim leaders, he's appealing to workers, etc) while stoking his base on the right. (To wit, the proposal of a "ministry of immigration and national identity".)

I just think he's got a better organized and more unified campaign; I expect he'll be much better prepared for the second round, as well.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 06:49:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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