But my sense is that a lot of the protest vote that in 02 went to the left of Jospin or to LePen is, for now, parked under Bayrou; if he can hold onto it (and getting attacked by the UMP and PS will help him, not hurt him, do that), I think he pulls away from Royal and maybe even finishes first on the 22nd. (I also think if Bove gets his signatures, and I think he will, he's going to do much better than the 1 or 2 percent he's got now.)

But I think Sarkozy will be much better prepared, on the ground, to win the second round, which is going to be won on on turnout, not message. PS (To say nothing of other left-wing) voters will be demoralized and won't turnout massively as they did for round 2 in 02; and there is no natural mass constituency for the UDF.