This is exactly the kind of head-up-your-arse thinking that has destroyed the Democrats in the US.  Recognize that not voting in this manner is one of the things the French seem to do right in their Presidential elections.

US polls are like the gambling spread - they move the herds.  The polling history in French elections seems to indicate that when the numbers are as close as they are that anything can happen.

I also read the tea leaves re: Royal.  I think her support in the provinces is greatly underestimated as her campaign must be targeted toward SOMEONE.  It is also what her staff has indicated.

I think Sarkozy's moves to the right defy logic for the first round if his chances are as the polls show.  He must be worried about something he's seeing internally.  I suspect that the more people see of him on TV the more they realize he's a phony.  Naturally he looks terrible to me and I can't belive the far more reasonable French population would fall for his bullshit.

Royal/Bayrou in second round is not unfathomable at all.  Unfortunately for the Left Royal has yet to show much spark in this race.  It will be interesting to see if her tone shifts gear in a second round.