I think you underrate the wariness by which Sarkozy is viewed by a large part of the electorate. His personal stats are poor. If there is a credible reformist opponent, he loses - or at least he is great danger of doing so. I think thats what Paving's point about Bayrou is - he's saying to the fuck you voters and the middle class social libs - hey I'm like Sarko, but without the bad stuff. In that he's saying to the first crowd, "look I'm not in with big business, I'm a  "man of the people" (farmer, Catholic, far from Paris), and to the second group, he's saying "I'm not a thug who hates dark people"

Check out the latest poll via LeMonde, but carried out for LeFig. Sarko loses 4 points - he's now at 27, Royal at 25.5, Bayrou at 23.

Also consider - who is a more natural candidate for the Gaullist traditionalists around Chirac and DeVillepin? Are they all going to come out for Sarko? Even in public? (to say nothing of the voting booth). Can you honestly say that Chirac et al would pull the lever for Sarko? I don't think we can make that assumption.