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This is from June 2006, but I doubt he's done much to make people think differently of him one way or another since this poll. Its been pretty well known he's been running since 2004 and he's been arguably the most high profile politician in France in that time frame.

Anyway, here are the numbers from a poll conducted on June 14-15 2006:

Diriez-vous de Nicolas Sarkozy qu'il vous rassure ou qu'il vous inquiète ?

Il vous rassure: 36%

Il vous inquiete: 55%

Sans Opinion: 9%

Et diriez-vous de Nicolas Sarkozy qu'il est séduisant ou qu'il n'est pas séduisant ?

Il est seduissant: 39%

Il n'est pas seduisant: 61%

IMO, those are bad numbers. They don't matter that much for those who are committed believers in his policies. But, as a political consultant, I see numbers like that and I get worried. They'll kill you with swing voters who don't necessarily share your policy/ideological cast and who are more influenced by the individual as a person.

Its one of the reasons, retrospectively, it was obvious John Kerry was going to lose in '04 by late August/early September. His "personals" were negative, even if Bush did not have strong performance marks either. The key was that the alternative was made to look unacceptable to the American voters.

As an outsider, having seen polls like this about Sarkozy, I've always felt he was vulnerable to an alternative the FRench voting public found "credible."

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 01:48:43 AM EST
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Interesting -- but its precisely because I think he has been putting forward a new face since January that I think he's in a lot stronger position. THat poll was taken <6 months after the "Karcher" and "racaille" comments got a lot of press -- since January, he's used very moderate language and changed his self-presentation a lot to tone down his rough edges.

Look, I hope you're right, but when I compare him on tv to Royal, and when I read about or talk to people about the election, I fear the worst.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 02:14:10 AM EST
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I think she can't win.

I think Bayrou is a real problem for Sarko, however.

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 02:27:44 AM EST
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With his "ministry for immigration" proposal and his latest comment, apparently, yesterday evening on Canal Plus, that immigrants were "draining our social security coffers" (I have this second hand for now, did not watch it myself).

See the speech that started this thread as well. He has veered sharply right - towards the nasty kind.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 04:32:15 AM EST
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Yes, the question is why? Is it because LePen claims to have his 500 signatures and Sarkozy wants to fight LePen for votes in the first round or (and not necessarily a separate strategy) is it because he thinks it'll be Bayrou and the way to beat him is to, as it were, mobilize the right-wing base in the 2nd round?
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 01:30:56 PM EST
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