A good Frenchman | 49 comments (49 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: A good Frenchman (4.00 / 3)

Some weeks back, Sarkozy told a meeting of rapatriés in Toulon that, if France owed an apology to anyone, it was to them. An obvious swipe at the Algerian people and, in institutional terms, the Algerian government. But no one in the media picks these things up.

This time he's having a gratuitous swipe at Germany, too. (That doesn't fit too well with his pretended groovy friendship with Angela.) Will the media notice this any more than the rest? Not that I can see for the moment...

After Le Pen's deliberate reference to Vichy in a speech this week, there was also Sarkozy's promise to create a Ministry of Immigration and National Identity, which has more than an echo of Vichyness about it. Ségolène Royal is at least reacting sharply to that - so the media have to talk about it a bit...

It's a stupid policy anyway. The opinion polls may still be showing Sarko at a sweet percentage compared to Le Pen, the chickens will come home to roost in the first round. Voters who really agree with what Sarko is saying will vote... Le Pen in Round One. By validating and echoing far-right positions, Nicolas is working for Jean-Marie.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 10:41:30 AM EST

Actually, (4.00 / 2)

I've been seeing comments that we were having a candidate of the left, a candidate of the right (Bayrou) and one of the extreme right (Sarkozy). I need to see if that came from serious sources.

It's a good line to push.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 10:48:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually, (none / 1)

I just saw a short TV interview with Bayrou on Euronews about Europe, the "Constitution", and France's role in European Construction. I agreed with everything he said.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:15:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the UDF (none / 1)

has always been consistently pro-European, and aware of the necessity for France to behave as a decent European in order to have the credibility to lead. It's one of the things I like about Bayrou's run - at least there is a clear pro-European voice.

Note though that current French commissioner Jacques Barrot has totally sold out to the neolibs on transportation and macroeconomic policies.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:33:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the UDF (none / 1)

Note though that current French commissioner Jacques Barrot has totally sold out to the neolibs on transportation and macroeconomic policies.

Given that Barrot is a member of the UMP, I don't know why you say "though". It just makes the difference between the UMP and the UDF all the more stark.

Bayrou did say that France had not been playing its proper rôle in Europe "for decades", maybe because they had stopped believing in it or something.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:41:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the UDF (none / 1)

Barrot is historically UDF, not Gaulliste. He went over to the UMP in 2002 along with Douste-Blazy.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:55:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the UDF (none / 1)

Thanks.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:56:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually, (none / 1)

funny, i was going to mention that...i saw that too, and he came across very very well, grounded, matter-of-fact, and sound on policies.

after seeing that i can see why he has a goodish chance, as his tone and lack of hype were reassuringly middle-of-the road, especially next to the increasingly rabid sarko.

i still root for royal, but he would be a huge upgrade after chirac, imo.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Mar 11th, 2007 at 06:41:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A good Frenchman (none / 1)

What would happen if Le Pen couldn't muster 500 signatures? Any chance they'd throw their support behind Sarko? I'd imagine many of them would just stay at home, but then I imagine plenty of things.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:14:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sarkozy (4.00 / 2)

has officially called for the signatures to be provided to Le Pen (i.e. there will be no retorsions against rightwing mayors that give their signature to Le Pen). He is worried that, should Le Pen not get his 500 signatures, he will call explicitly to vote against Sarkozy, blaming him directly for his absence on the ballot - which would bring more voices to everybody but Sarkozy.

I expect that it would be a pretty big crisis if Le Pen were not on the ballot.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 11:31:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)

The latest Ifop poll (Le Monde article) seems to suggest Sarko would be the primary beneficiary if Le Pen isn't on the ballot:

Sarko: 28% (-1)
Bayrou: 23% (+4)
Royal: 23% (-2.5)
Le Pen: 13% (+1)
(Villiers: 1%)

Without Le Pen:
Sarko: 34.5%
Bayrou: 25%
Royal: 24%
(Villiers: 3.5%)

Doesn't take a denouncement by Le Pen into account of course. That's the first poll putting Bayrou at parity with Royal.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 01:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)

Why do you say Sarkozy would be the prime beneficiary? I just don't see it, especially if Le Pen calls for a vote to punish Sarkozy.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 01:54:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)

I'm just saying that that poll seems to suggest Sarko gains the most in Le Pen's absence. But obviously that's just a poll. Whether that occurs in reality is of course a different matter.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 02:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sarkozy (none / 1)

Cambadelis, who has always struck me as one of two guys at the PS who doesnt' have his head you know where (LeGall the other; the only two to predict Jospin might finish behind LePen in 02) had an interesting quote in Liberation this week -- that LePen probably already has his 500 signatures but may not run, preferring to campaign informally against "the system" and claim he was undemocratically (sic) exlcluded, rather than finish 4th.

Sarokzy's camp is trying to avoid that outcome at all costs, because he needs LePens' voters in the second round if its Royal -- and moreover because LePen not being on the ballot and blaming the incumbent government for keeping him out could very well put Bayrou over the hump ahead of Royal in the first round -- and likely give him the Presidency.

What remains to be seen is if Sarkozy and the UMP will be held responsible for explicitly calling for mayors to sign for LePen.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sat Mar 10th, 2007 at 03:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A good Frenchman (none / 1)

I believe it has already been proven in 2002 that Le Pen has no chance to be elected as President - anybody from the "moderate" right or left who will compete against him is sure to be elected (with ex-Soviet Republic scores to boot)

I am concerned though about Bayrou's proposal to deploy fully proportional elections for the parliament - effectively opening seats for the FN, but that can be debated as it also would help see more greens or extreme-left in the parliament.

Le caoutchouc serait un matériau très précieux, n'était son élasticité qui le rend impropre à tant d'usages.- A.Allais

by armadillos (armadillo2024 (at) free (dotto) fr) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 09:39:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A good Frenchman | 49 comments (49 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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