Bayrou Rising | 45 comments (45 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

polls (4.00 / 3)

From this week-end's thread:

NordicStorm had this as well, as a "poll of polls":

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 06:16:07 AM EST

Re: polls (4.00 / 2)

This (a different image hoster) should display NordicStorm's average of all the polls:

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 06:27:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 0)

pleasant Graph afew ;-), who said i was dreaming :-))

Sarko will get 35% if Lepen dont get his 500 signatures (Even is Lepen asks his "voters" to avoid Sarko) and we will enjoy a nice Bayrou-Sarko, with Sarko likely president IMHO.

The stupid strategy of demonizing Sarko is Paying.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 01:08:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

IF Le Pen is forced not to run;

IF Le Pen voters decide to vote Sarko all the same;

IF Bayrou is in Round Two;

IF Sarko beats Bayrou...

Lot of IFs in your supposed realism...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:08:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

Please enlight a foreigner.

What 500 signatures? Forced not to run?

Huh?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

I am as foreign as you are in this regard, but to be on the presidential ballot in France you need to acquire signatures from 500 different elected officials. Some of the smaller candidates have expressed frustration that they're having difficulties getting those 500 signatures. Deadline to submit those signatures is this Friday, I believe.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:20:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

Interesting way of limiting the candidates. Just to get an impression of what this rule means in real terms: What (approximately) would be the number of those whose signature counts?

Does Le Pen need support of some from the UMP to get his 500? (I guess this would be what is refered to as being forced not to run.)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 05:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (4.00 / 2)

People that can provide these signatures - there are about 40 000 of them ; there are many small communes in France !

Many of the small commune mayors are not publicly UMP or PS or whatever. So they don't have party pressure not to sign.

But there is the stigma of signing for Le Pen - implicitly supporting him - that many mayors don't want to go through. There have also been reports of Departmental Councils (conseil général) cutting off subsidies if the mayor signs for the wrong candidate.

In 2002 the hurdle was quite low as mayors freely gave signatures - there ended up being 16 candidates, a major reason for Jospin's failure to make it to the second round.

Le Pen can clearly get his signature without any UMP mayor signing. But he likes to play the victim - it gets him airtime. He played the same comedy in 2002.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 07:27:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 0)

I heard on the radio (France Inter) this morning that Le Pen has practically all his signatures. Just making out everyone wants to silence him (because he's the man who has the vital things to say!), as usual.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 02:15:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

To be an officially recognized candidate, you need 500 signatures from elected officials (mayors, deputies, senators - closing date 16/03). A number of candidates don't appear to have their full complement yet, including Le Pen. Though you never know with him, he likes to act the martyr's part.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

LePen said last night, as reported on TF1, that he had the signatures. I didn't see this picked up in today's papers, though; could be that no one believes him.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 04:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 0)

"IF Le Pen is forced not to run;"
extremely likely

"IF Le Pen voters decide to vote Sarko all the same;"

at least 70% of them will vote Sarko and the others are unlikely to vote Sego or Bayrou

"IF Bayrou is in Round Two;"

very likely

"IF Sarko beats Bayrou..."

I do not think that Bayrou will stand very long front of Sarko in a public debate and whatever the Legislative result will show an overwhelming UMP majority (i think it is the reason why Bayrou will loose the second tour, everyone know he will not be able to govern without the UMP )

"Lot of IFs in your supposed realism..."
;-)

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

You should write a diary about this because you obviously have a lot of inside knowledge ;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

Le Nouvel Observateur is keeping tabs on the candidates' signatures. Le Pen claims to have a few more than 450 signatures thus far (we only have his word for it, of course). Can he get 50 more in a week?

The thing I wonder is how man FN voters are going to bother to show up on election day, if Le Pen isn't on the ballot?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 04:02:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

Do you mean to say that Sarkozy has a good debate reputation? Talking fast and telling people what they want to hear is what a salesman does, not a President. From what I've seen of Bayrou he speaks very naturally and in simple enough terms to be understood even by someone with limited ability to comprehend spoken French (me). Perhaps this is very bad but it does come off as "real" in way that Sarkozy and Royal are not.

by paving on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 04:54:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ooops! (none / 0)

Le Pen in fact has his 500 signatures and will hand them into the Conseil Constitutionnel this afternoon, two days ahead of deadline...

Nice try, frédougne!

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 10:34:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

Laurent GUERBY suggested I add a line for other candidates, so I did:

I contemplated whether to add abstentions as well, but ultimately I opted against it. The percentages for the candidates are the percentages of the people who named a candidate, not of everyone polled, so a line for abstentions in there might be a bit misleading, given that it's not directly comparable.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 01:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (none / 1)

Above all it's one of the weaknesses of averaging all the polls: they don't handle abstentions/undecideds in the same way and have very different numbers for this.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: polls (4.00 / 2)

That's true. Still, it'll be interesting to see what happens when the campaign kicks off for real and we get closer to election day...

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:26:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bayrou Rising | 45 comments (45 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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