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Reading this I have trouble seeing the outcomes. So a question to the more french among us would be what are the likely run-off scenarios?

If the candidates that has a chance at making it to run-off are Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou and Le Pen then these are the possible run-offs:

Sarkozy vs. Royal?
Sarkozy vs. Bayrou?
Bayrou vs. Royal?
Sarkozy vs. Le Pen?
Royal vs. Le Pen?
Bayrou vs. Le Pen?

So which are likely?

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by A swedish kind of death on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 09:31:49 AM EST
Sarkozy vs. Royal - still the most likely. Very open.

All others are equally (not very) likely, in my mind, except Le Pen-Bayrou. In order of decreasing likelihood:

Bayrou vs. Royal.  Bayrou wins with the right.
Royal vs. Le Pen. Royal wins 60-40.
Sarkozy vs. Le Pen. Sarkozy wins with low participation
Sarkozy vs. Bayrou - Bayrou wins with the left.

Bayrou vs. Le Pen. Nah.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 10:07:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
i dont get why you are talking of Lepen-Bayrou, Lepen is stable and furthermore, is likely not having enough signatures (and that will give a 5-7% boost to Sarko).

did i miss something ?

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 01:13:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You think that in a Royal vs. Le Pen second round Royal would only get sixty percent? If you're right that's pretty depressing.
by MarekNYC on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 02:34:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be. I'd expect abstention/null votes from a lot of UMP supporters, rather than direct votes for Le Pen. I wouldn't count on them to play the republican game as the left did for Chirac. Whether it would be 60-40 though, I don't know.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the assumption is that centre-right voters would stay at home, unlike the Socialists in 2002.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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