"IF Le Pen voters decide to vote Sarko all the same;"

at least 70% of them will vote Sarko and the others are unlikely to vote Sego or Bayrou

"IF Bayrou is in Round Two;"

very likely

"IF Sarko beats Bayrou..."

I do not think that Bayrou will stand very long front of Sarko in a public debate and whatever the Legislative result will show an overwhelming UMP majority (i think it is the reason why Bayrou will loose the second tour, everyone know he will not be able to govern without the UMP )

"Lot of IFs in your supposed realism..."
;-)