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"IF Le Pen is forced not to run;"
extremely likely

"IF Le Pen voters decide to vote Sarko all the same;"

at least 70% of them will vote Sarko and the others are unlikely to vote Sego or Bayrou

"IF Bayrou is in Round Two;"

very likely

"IF Sarko beats Bayrou..."

I do not think that Bayrou will stand very long front of Sarko in a public debate and whatever the Legislative result will show an overwhelming UMP majority (i think it is the reason why Bayrou will loose the second tour, everyone know he will not be able to govern without the UMP )

"Lot of IFs in your supposed realism..."

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:41:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You should write a diary about this because you obviously have a lot of inside knowledge ;)
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 03:44:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Le Nouvel Observateur is keeping tabs on the candidates' signatures. Le Pen claims to have a few more than 450 signatures thus far (we only have his word for it, of course). Can he get 50 more in a week?

The thing I wonder is how man FN voters are going to bother to show up on election day, if Le Pen isn't on the ballot?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 04:02:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you mean to say that Sarkozy has a good debate reputation?  Talking fast and telling people what they want to hear is what a salesman does, not a President.  From what I've seen of Bayrou he speaks very naturally and in simple enough terms to be understood even by someone with limited ability to comprehend spoken French (me).  Perhaps this is very bad but it does come off as "real" in way that Sarkozy and Royal are not.
by paving on Mon Mar 12th, 2007 at 04:54:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Le Pen in fact has his 500 signatures and will hand them into the Conseil Constitutionnel this afternoon, two days ahead of deadline...

Nice try, frédougne!

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Mar 14th, 2007 at 10:34:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]