Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Here are a couple of links from IMF:
The Challenges of Predicting Economic Crises
The Asian Crisis: Causes and Cures

Even with most official terminology, prediction of financial crises looks very much like fortune telling, as evidenced by this abstract:

This paper examines the view that the recent Indonesian crisis was largely unforeseen. The broadest macroeconomic indicators were of virtually no help in presaging the crisis; neither were high-frequency financial indicators. But warnings were there, just below the surface, in some of the macro indicators and in certain structural weaknesses that were long recognised as threats to financial stability. That said, none of these warnings suggested crisis of the magnitude that eventually occurred. The Indonesian experience indicates that macroeconomic stability should never be taken for granted. Signs of vulnerability to financial instability include: the degree of reliance on gross private capital inflows (taking into account maturities and the implications for rollovers); the extent of unhedged foreign exchange positions; and certain indirect indicators, such as policy slippages and key personnel changes. Finally, in a world of volatile capital flows, crisis will tend to occur before standard economic data suggest that crisis is imminent.

Hmmm... Reliance on gross capital inflows...

by das monde on Fri Mar 23rd, 2007 at 02:18:57 AM EST

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