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for describing the current situation.  Ponzi just recyled the later money to pay off the early investors and ran away when the tanks were found to be empty.  That is hardly the case with real estate and the stock market.  The assets do exist.

What we have at the moment is a world with a rapidly growing population, with rapidly increasing productivity leading to a lot more work value sloshing around.  That's causing some asset bubbles as interest rates are probably too low and leverage is being offered too easily.  Simply just too much money chasing too few assets.  So maybe the assets are currently over valued and we will get a pull back.  

But I don't buy your Great Depression argument (90% drop in the DOW in 3 years and 25%+ unemployment).  20-30 % pullback like 2000 -- maybe.  But I'm getting awfully jaded with the Cassandra forecasts that would need a 30% pullback on the S&P just to get down to the point where the doom was first predicted.

by HiD on Thu Mar 22nd, 2007 at 05:54:13 AM EST
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too much money chasing too few assets - so it becames a game of piling money into pyramides??

Existence of assests does not exclude emergent Ponzi financing. As you say, there might be too few assets for too much money. In effect, the market "recycles" money of later entrants to give profit margins to astute insiders.  The tanks are not left completely empty, but there remains just a meager bottom of aa volumous bubble.

by das monde on Thu Mar 22nd, 2007 at 09:08:24 PM EST
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