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The french presidential election is mostly focused on candidate personality not programs, and I'd add poll of the day for this election more than any other before.

Latest polls http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-896340@51-841384,0.html

  • CSA 10 april shows NS 26 / SR 23 / FB 21 / JMLP 15, second round  NS 51 / SR 49.

  • IFOP 13 april show NS 28 / SR 24 / FB 18 / JMLP 13 and second round NS 53 / SR 47.

Since JMLP vote is pretty hard to evaluate for pollsters, we have a configuration were 4 candidates have a real chance of getting to the second round.

I'd add that there were an exceptional amount of new voters (young and french abroad), plus a "woman" factor so it should be even harder for pollsters...

If you read french here is a blog-fiction of 22 april:

http://dinersroom.free.fr/index.php?2007/04/11/429-le-22-avril-soiree-electorale-du-premier-tour-fic tion-2

by Laurent GUERBY on Sat Apr 14th, 2007 at 04:47:12 PM EST

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