Sarkozy seems more dangerous than I thought | 79 comments (79 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Sarkozy seems more dangerous than I thought (4.00 / 2)

Sounds like he is a Social Dominant which is what you'd expect if you've read Altmeyer's paper.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 02:58:45 AM EST

Re: Sarkozy seems more dangerous than I thought (4.00 / 2)

Apparently there's nothing that will sway his supporters, either, including self-contradiction and hypocrisy. Facts or allegations that would damage other candidates don't stick to him.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 03:36:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sarkozy seems more dangerous than I thought (4.00 / 3)

What the media don't talk about, doesn't exist.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 03:54:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Which is why I think (4.00 / 4)

that he will not get more than Chirac ever did, i.e. below 20%.

Note that Sarkozy has badly lost so far the national elections he ran for. In 1999, he got 12.8% leading the RPR list at the European elections (Pasqua/de Villier got 13%, Le Pen 5%, Megret (a Le Pen sidekick wh betrayed him but has since come back in the fold) 3.9% and Bayrou 9%

See here (scroll down to 1999)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 04:00:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (none / 1)

So,, is he polling 30%+ because the 40% of undecided are not counted?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 05:51:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (none / 1)

How fair do you think it is to say that the polls are part of the media?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 07:38:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (4.00 / 2)

Can you answer the question?

I seem to recall someone's comment weeks ago suggesting that the vote percentages reported by polls didn't include the 40% undecided, which means a 30% could be 30% of as little as 60%, that is, 18%.

I would like to see that (dis)confirmed.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 07:44:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (4.00 / 3)

Yup.
If Sarko gets 30% in any given poll, that's 30% out of those polled who named a candidate, not to 30% of those with the intention of voting. The sum of all the candidates' poll numbers always add up to 100% (look at Ipsos' poll tracker for example).

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 07:59:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (none / 1)

So the polls don't have a "don't know/decline to answer" category?

Talk about unprofessional.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:01:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (4.00 / 4)

They do report the number of people who didn't name a candidate, but to put it into context, one has to do some minor number crunching.
For example, in the latest Ipsos, Sarko gets 28.5% of the votes, and 14% of those planning on voting didn't name a candidate. Which means Sarko actually received 24.5%. And the number of people who didn't name a candidate varies quite a bit from pollster to pollster.
In other words, don't be surprised if the second round is between Besancenot and Voynet.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:18:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They do (4.00 / 4)

but they post the results brought back to 100% of those that express a view point.

Not sure if they update the relevant error interval.

Le Monde's graphs with polls (for sub.) do give the info on "no opinion":

See for CSA: it's 21% (the white shaded area). It varies from 7% to 24% according to the poll outfits.

(click for larger)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

Sheesh, their definition of "Abstention" is "people certain to vote but not expressing a preference".

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

"certain to vote"? From an opinion poll? How do they know?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:36:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

Question 1: Do you intend to vote? Certainly/Maybe/Certainly not
Question 2 (if "Certainly" above): Who would you vote for?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:37:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's introduce some push polling (4.00 / 6)

Question: if you knew that Sarkozy being elected president would be the end of the republic and indeed the entire continent, would you be more or less inclined to vote for him?
If you answered more inclined: do you work as a journalist at the Financial Times?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:45:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (4.00 / 2)

Why don't they ask "Are you a lazy git with no sense of civic duty"? If ever there was a question unlikely to get a sensible result ...

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

If the question is potentially embarrassing, you just tell the polled person to toss a coin (this being over the phone, the pollster cannot see the outcome), and to tell you the following:

heads: yes
tails: the true answer

If both answers are potentially embarrassing, you toss two coins and say:

two heads: yes
two tails: no
one head and one tails: the true answer

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:46:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

Huh?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:50:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

It's a standard mechanism to remove bias. The tradeoff is that the margin of error is increased.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

Reference. I can't see straight off how that works, but then I'm doing two other things at the same time.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (4.00 / 2)

Ah, make that "Reference please, if you have it?". Failed my politeness saving throw.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

That was an exam question in an exam I took last year. I didn't know the formulas so I derived them on the spot. The idea is pretty simple.

Check out question 5(ii) here (PDF, and solutions). The question of reliability hinges on the difference between accuracy and precision.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (4.00 / 3)

Not precisely; the "echantillon representatif" method used by French polling institutes does not allow for the calculation of a mathematical "margin of error."

Your point of course is entirely true for the more widely used "random sample" method, but in the case of French polls, its more accurate to say merely that the problem of screening to remove bias seeks to increase the accuracy of the result at the expense of reducing the precision of the poll.

But in fact we can't use "margin of error" to assess that precision, which is why I am convinced that things remain wide open for Sunday's result.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They do (none / 1)

Excellent comment.

Not that "margin of error" means anything if there are more than two possible (yes/no) answers.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Which is why I think (4.00 / 5)

They do have that category, but it doesn't correspond to the 40% who say (in other polls) they don't yet know who they're voting for. The different institutes give from 5% to 25% of "no choice" replies.

What they don't give is the number of outright refusals they get (possibly one out of two contacts); or the number of people without a land line who are never polled (around 17% of the electorate).

So they "reconstitute" the electorate and recalculate the percentages. The raw numbers, apparently, give Royal ahead. By the time they've finished cooking, Sarkozy is ahead. Le Pen is multiplied by three (and, imo, is still lower than the real level of intentions).

I'm not saying (or at least I'm not sure that) the pollsters deliberately manipulate in Sarko's favour. I am saying the polls mean a whole lot less than they are cracked up to mean. And that the pollsters play the gurus in the unrolling of the media drama - which is, by and large, framed in Sarko's favour. Public commentary on the election is largely dominated by this game.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

late deciders (4.00 / 4)

In a word, this is correct. The "non-responsive" category in the polls presumably contains not only undecided but also those who will abstain or cast blank ballots.

There's every indication though that abstention will be much lower than in 02, which means by default that there is a high degree of indicision, and this is not uncharacteristic for a multi-candidate field (and especially for a 1st round presidential election. Exit polls in 02 reported >20% made their decision in final 48 hours).

And there are those who might change their minds.

Carroll of CSA notes in an interview in today's Monde that he still finds a very high degree of volatility in Bayrou's supporters -- up to 50% might still change their minds. That could mean a late surge for LePen (if, as the UMP apparently thinks, those soft Bayrouistes are protest voters from La France exasperee), it might mean a late surge for Sarkozy (as Carroll seems to imply, with no real basis), it might mean a late surge for Royal (which I don't expect it seems better supported by Carrol's own CSA polling of the last few days than the other hypotheses.)

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:03:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: late deciders (4.00 / 3)

The "non-responsive" category in the polls presumably contains not only undecided but also those who will abstain or cast blank ballots.

Not abstainers, since the population polled has answered a first question on whether they have the firm intention of going to vote. (See the Le Monde graph Jérôme posts. There, the term "Abstention" refers to those who say they are certain to vote but have not expressed a choice in the poll - ie, they have "abstained" from the poll). However, some of these may cast a blank ballot, I suppose. If they don't change their minds before then...

The 40% undecided figure comes from a recent much-commented poll that researched exactly that question.

Bayrou's undecided supporters, if they decided not to vote for him, could go anywhere, depending on the dynamics of the week.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:24:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sarkozy seems more dangerous than I thought | 79 comments (79 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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