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Why don't they ask "Are you a lazy git with no sense of civic duty"? If ever there was a question unlikely to get a sensible result ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 08:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the question is potentially embarrassing, you just tell the polled person to toss a coin (this being over the phone, the pollster cannot see the outcome), and to tell you the following:
  • heads: yes
  • tails: the true answer
If both answers are potentially embarrassing, you toss two coins and say:
  • two heads: yes
  • two tails: no
  • one head and one tails: the true answer


"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:46:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:50:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a standard mechanism to remove bias. The tradeoff is that the margin of error is increased.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 11:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reference. I can't see straight off how that works, but then I'm doing two other things at the same time.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, make that "Reference please, if you have it?". Failed my politeness saving throw.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was an exam question in an exam I took last year. I didn't know the formulas so I derived them on the spot. The idea is pretty simple.

Check out question 5(ii) here (PDF, and solutions). The question of reliability hinges on the difference between accuracy and precision.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not precisely; the "echantillon representatif" method used by French polling institutes does not allow for the calculation of a mathematical "margin of error."

Your point of course is entirely true for the more widely used "random sample" method, but in the case of French polls, its more accurate to say merely that the problem of screening to remove bias seeks to increase the accuracy of the result at the expense of reducing the precision of the poll.

But in fact we can't use "margin of error" to assess that precision, which is why I am convinced that things remain wide open for Sunday's result.  

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent comment.

Not that "margin of error" means anything if there are more than two possible (yes/no) answers.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 17th, 2007 at 12:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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