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Rocard's proposal was clearly intended to begin that discussion rather than to propose either Bayrou or Royal make an endorsement before the 1st round.
I'm as skeptical by the way of polling showing a late Royal surge as I was/am of polling showing Sarkozy comfortably ahead (or for that matter showing Bayrou falling back).
It is natural that the "polls" would want to be viewed as doing a good job so they can maintain some semblance of credibility. If they know Royal will make the 2nd round, which seems rather likely, their polls had better show it if they want to have any chance at influending the 2nd round vote.
I also think that Bayrou's support comes at Sarkozy's expense more than anyone else and is essentially your anti-Sarkozy vote. Should Bayrou fail to reach the 2nd round his support will be more likely to move toward Royal.
Lastly I suspect Sarkozy might be in real danger of missing the 2nd round. A Royal/Le Pen matchup does not seem out of the range of possibility here.
That opens the door to manipulation.
I'm going to go ahead and guess that the French population has caught on to the dangers of polling (or have always understood it) and are by nature misleading those polls and best of all ignoring them before voting.
Americans have the pathetic, sad and depressing tendency to vote the way the polls are, you know, because people like to vote for a winner. UGH.
the French population has caught on to the dangers of polling (or have always understood it) and are by nature misleading those polls
This has been suggested and discussed in Le Monde and other outlets. It's surely true of a proportion of the electorate.
As to taking no notice of the polls before voting, I hope so. Though some on the left seem to be getting the poll jitters...
If they win this one it was to their fortune that the candidate of the right was so disagreeable. Bush, for all his political faults, is reasonably likable on a personal level for most and that is his greatest asset.
He remembers names and tries to act like your good buddy even if you don't know him. Most people are flattered by such behavior and especially when that person represents so much power.
This would be less effective if so many US politicians weren't such total pricks. Bush/Cheney is essentially a good cop/bad cop routine.
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