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It definitely appears to me that Le Pen wants to block Sarkozy.  I think he likes b/s even less than us.
by paving on Wed Apr 18th, 2007 at 01:22:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I think LePen's attacks will help Sarkozy by making him seem more moderate -- and the UMP  is happy about it. (LeMonde had a story to this effect last week.) Also, Sarkozy really wants to be sure he doesn't face BAyrou in the second round and he believes that, again based on LeMonde reporting, Bayrou and LePen are actually competing for some of the same protest votes; so Sarkozy wants LePen to pick these up in the first round - to keep Bayrou's score down.

That said, its important to keep in mind that both of the major parties, but especially the PS, are focused this week less on picking up Bayrou's voters (that will start Sunday night) on not seeing their "base" voters disperse to the "extremes" as happened in the final days to both Chirac and Jospin in 2002. (Thats why Holland got so upset at Rocard's overtures to Bayrou and why Royal is talking about "proletariot" today.)

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Wed Apr 18th, 2007 at 10:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that Le Pen explicitly stated on radio (on France-Info on Tuesday) that he expected to face off Royal in the second round. He said that he saw Sarkozy "se jospiniser" (jospinifying).

There's some element of wishful thinking in that, as Royal offers him, obviously, his best shot at a strong score in a second round, but as it happens to fit with what I think myself...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 04:05:14 AM EST
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Hoping for a Royal-LePen is certainly wishful thinking on the part of the left, as it is the only sure vote for Segolène :)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 04:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, she'll win against Sarkozy. Sarkozy's campaign team is convinced of it, thus their attempts to push Le Pen up^.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 05:51:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, single transferable voting would be such an improvement on the French system. It would eliminate all this campaigning to influence people to vote strategically on disinformation.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 05:55:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, hope for the best, expect the worst, as Mel Brooks might say...

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 05:52:47 AM EST
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Speaking of whom, am I the only one who sees the resemblance between him and Bayrou? I fully expect Bayrou to break into a stunning rendition of "The Inquisition! What a show!" every time I see him on TV.
But I might be a bit weird.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 05:57:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and this will help the UMP make the case to those right-wing voters vacillating between Sarkozy and LePen to "votez utile," so to speak. It'll also help, from their point of view, prevent a late break of some votes from Sarko to Villiers or Nihous. My point was only that both sides fear a dispersion of even a couple % points. Sarkozy knows that if he doesn't finish first and close to 30, he's going to be coming in below expectations.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Thu Apr 19th, 2007 at 10:44:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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