French election official results thread | 49 comments (49 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 5)

First, Bayrou himself will not support Ségolène Royal: it would jeopardise his project aiming at building a new centrist party.

The question is: how to attract enough Bayrou voters? A significant number of them are left leaning voters who are fed up with the incapacity of the Socialist Party to quit its old "Guesdiste" (or "Molletiste") culture (i.e. holding a hard-left quasi-Marxist line while in opposition and implementing pragmatic pro-market policies when in power) for a new social-democrat (not Blairite!) approach of well-regulated market economy including an important role for unions and social dialogue, the empowerment of stakeholders and the development of social economy.

Another part of Bayrou voters is the traditional Christian Democrats who do not agree with the authoritarian and liberal ideology of Sarkozy, but not enough to join a "non-modernised" Socialist Party.

Both groups are also looking forward to a modernisation of the French institutions.

For both these groups, an "Everything but Sarkozy" strategy is not enough and doomed to fail. Even if there are parts of her program with which they might agree, other parts are, in their view, contradictory and they do not trust Ségolène enough to adopt a really new approach.

Therefore, she needs to give a clear and strong sign of her commitment to a social-democrat orientation. The only way I see she could do it is by announcing who she would name Prime Minister in case of a left-wing victory in the parliamentary elections.

She has several possibilities. Jacques Delors and Michel Rocard can be effectively used in the campaign, but they are too old for being a PM. Dominique Strauss-Kahn would be the best, but I doubt Ségolène would chose him because of their rivalry. Bernard Kouchner is very popular, but his economical skills are not well established. I think Pascal Lamy (current Director General of WTO), an important Socialist Party member, but not an elephant, could make a good candidate for PM and convince Bayrou voters.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

she needs to give a clear and strong sign of her commitment to a social-democrat orientation

Agreed, but she needs to make clear that this orientation begins and remains committed fundamentally to an impartial state based on transparent and vibrant democracy. That is where there is the most space between Bayrou's voter and Sarko. That can't be addressed just by naming a PM (although I agree thats a good strategy). Ithink it means

>rule of law; the rampant corruption of the RPR and UMP, especially in the Parisian region, is something that Sarkozy is deeply implicated in personally and this has been largely absent from the campaign. She could put Sarko on the defensive by calling for him to engage in the sort of "droit d'inventaire" that Jospin did for the PS -- she should demand Sarko agree now not to pardon Chirac or any other RPR/UMP figue for past crimes. Why as Interior Minister did he look the other way for nearly 5 years as these investigations into everything from RPR housing scandal to Clearstream ground down.

>likewise, a crackdown on white-collar crime, including illegally hidden executive compensation. Every appearance should call on Sarkozy to explain why as Finance Minister he did nothing about those golden parachutes that he now opposes.

>reform of institutions. Beginning with independence of the judiciary but also to enhance the voice of the people, one of her major early themes. Greater power for the Parliament, more direct consultation of the people at local level. A good example that she alluded to on Sunday night -- no major EU agreement without consent of the people, nothing ratified by Parlement "dans le dos du peuple". She should announce an impartial figure to serve as a "Ministre sans portefeuille pour s'occuper de la reforme institutionelle", or something more feliticous sounding. This should include campaign and party financing; challenge Sarkozy to reveal UMP financing now before the election.

>as President, more attention to effective diplomacy on the world stage. Promise to appoint a cabinet-level ambassador to the UN (akin to the minister for EU affairs); make clear this person's job will be to provide an effective international counterweight to Washington. In short, if the incumbent government had been more effective in 2003, France could have stopped the war. Villepin was poetic but ineffective; where was Sarkozy?

In short, reform vs corruption. Its at the heart of why everyone on the left hates Sarkozy; its at the heart of why Bayrou had such appeal; its at the heart of what the Republic is about.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

I hasten to add she should be clear that this house-cleaning will apply to the PS as well -- and thus she can propose a reform of her party as well that will build on the reforms since 02, making it easier to join and more transparent in its internal functioning.

She worked hard to give people a renewed PS candicacy; she'll work as just as hard to give them a new center-left party.

Make clear there will be opportunity for both a centrist wing and an "anti-liberal" wing of this new party; the new party will be a space for vibrant and honest debate just as the new Republic must be.

Not merely a reshuffling of names among the same old elephants like the UMP proved to be.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:54:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

I agree with you. I think (I might be wrong) that number of these measures are already in her program (not the PS one!), or that she is not far from them. I was focusing on how she can convince Social-Democrats and Christian Democrats she will really transform the Socialist Party and commit herself to the necessary reforms (! ;-)), for example in the National Education system. It requires a very strong sign, and naming a potential PM would be one.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:50:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

Sure. My point is that she's done enough symbolic demonstrations and needs to emphasize what, as you point out, is in her program. I think a gesture like naming a PM will distract from that, and will undermine her most important point -- her independence from parties, factions, interests.

Plus naming a PM is the surest way to create more Eric Bressons, or at least bring out those who feel they've got a better chance for their own future by torpedoing her than by supporting her.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 0)

I hope you guys have sent these ideas to Royal's campaign headquarters! They may know it, but they should be happy to hear confirmation from the public.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:51:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

This strategy could easily lose a significant part of the hard and far-left vote.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:46:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

I don't think so. For the far-left, the "Everything but Srakozy" criterion will work. In fact, all of the far-left candidates have already called their voters to support Ségolène, including, for the first time, Arlette Laguiller...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:54:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

I'm not sure it will work on all voters. And we are in a situation where one percent counts.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

Yes, but without at least half of the Bayrou voters, Ségolène Royal can't win. Half of the Bayrou voters makes 9,27%. The total of far-left+greens voters makes 10,62%...

More generally, the left + the far left cannot make a majority in France, unless they attract centre-left voters.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:00:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

Don't make the calculation without Bayrou and far-right voters going to Sarko. Even the hardly realistic case of 60% vs. 30% of first-round Bayrou voters going Ségo resp. Sarko will mean a relative difference of only 18.57*0.3=5.57 percentage points, putting Royal a mere quarter percent ahead without considering the non-mainstream voters, who on first approximation will balance each other out (expecting far-right voters to go Sarko with less consistency). Now what matters is the political prize of getting every additional percent of Bayrou voters to switch, and that goes up the further you push from the current 46%-39%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 03:50:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

Arlette even said she is voting for Royal.

Incredible, but she's been making these noises since she was on 4 verites two months ago. I personally think she is overwhelmed and impressed at how far the political environment has come with respect to women's participation, that's how she sounds to me anyhow. After all, she was all alone in that wilderness for quite some time and she takes a little (rightful imho) pride in Royal's stature today.

A class move for a swan song.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:08:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

First, Bayrou himself will not support Ségolène Royal: it would jeopardise his project aiming at building a new centrist party.

How so? It would be supporting Sarkozy that would allow the UMP to swallow the UDF.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:30:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

Bayrou could think of two different strategies:

support Ségolène in order to benefit from the restructuring of the right which would follow Sarkozy's defeat (but its risky and it depends on the parliamentary elections results)
support no one and hope the defeat of the left will allow him to run successfully for presidency against Sarko in 2012

I think he will support none of them openly, except if, following Ségolène's call for a meeting, they build a centre-left coalition.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 07:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

What are the chances of Bayrou being PM or some high-ranking ministry if he supports Segolene?

Say, Sego President, DSK PM, Bayrou Minister of Foreign Affairs (and European Affairs).

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 09:45:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

I doubt he will accept to be a minister himself. He would probably prefer to have one of his UDF supporters named minister.

The main question is how the Socialist Party can facilitate the creation of the new party he would like to lead? That means negotiate constituencies...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:19:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

Of course, let's not forget that historically when the center and the left where allied pre-Fifth Republic, the centrist bailed out very early in the legislature. If there is a possibilty of a center and right wing majority, it would happen during the legislature.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:50:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

the incapacity of the Socialist Party to quit its old "Guesdiste" (or "Molletiste") culture (i.e. holding a hard-left quasi-Marxist line while in opposition and implementing pragmatic pro-market policies when in power)

You just described the way European Socialist/Social Democratic parties everywhere have behaved in the past 15 years (if not longer). Good luck changing that.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:33:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

You may say I'm a dreamer...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 07:34:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

French election official results thread | 49 comments (49 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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