When Philippe Marliere says:

Royal's approach demoralised and angered traditional leftwing voters (many of whom none the less felt compelled to vote for her). It also disoriented working-class voters, who were unable to see any difference between the left and the right..................

it is contradictory with the elections results: if leftwing voters had been so demoralised and angered, they would either have voted for the far-left or abstained.

As I said elsewhere, the Socialist Party and the far-left cannot make a majority. If Royal wants to win, she has to convince a significant number of Bayrou voters.

The "Anybody but Sarkozy" strategy will work well with the far-left and a limited number of Bayrou voters, but it will not be enough.

Philippe Marliere is a supporter of Laurent Fabius, who opposed the European constitutional treaty and who thinks he would benefit from Royal's defeat...

BTW, it is very difficult to forecast the behaviour of Le Pen voters. Some of them will vote Sarkozy, the extreme-right hard-liners will probably abstain and some will vote Royal, but it's impossible to know how many.


"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet