Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Some promising news from the newly released by TNS-Sofres, showing a narrow margin for Sarko 51-49. Note that this is the first poll conducted entirely after Sunday, based on data from Monday and Tuesday. There's a high likelihood that the FIVE polls published Monday, all based on Sunday evening calls, overweighted older, wealthier and less urban voters. (American pollsters have in the past tried to avoid doing surveys on weekends for this reason.)

seules 25 % des voix de François Bayrou se reporteraient sur le candidat de l'UMP contre 46 % sur la candidate du PS, le reste des électeurs du candidat de l'UDF n'exprimant pas d'intentions de vote. Nicolas Sarkozy obtiendrait en revanche les faveurs de 62 % des électeurs du Front national. Mme Royal pourrait pour sa part compter sur le report de 78 % des voix d'Olivier Besancenot.

only 25% of the votes of Francois Bayrou would come to the UMP candidate, against 46% for the candidate of the PS, [a much wider margin for Royal than in any earlier poll], the rest of the UDF candidate's voters not expressing an intention. Nicolas Sarkozy would obtain by contrast the support of 62% of the Front National voters [Sunday polling have him >75%]. Madame Royal could count for her part on the support of 78% of Olivier Besancenot's voters.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 02:50:26 PM EST

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