Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
It would be great if there will be a red-green coalition.

I don't know how much influence Bremen will have, though. But it's in the interest of the SPD not too stick too tight with the grand coalition, they don't want to perpetuate it forever, after all.

So, let's speculate and say there will be a red-green coalition. The next elections in the German states are January next year, in Hessen and Niedersachsen, and after that Hamburg, in the second quarter of 2008, and Bayern, in the third quarter of 2008. That's four more states before the next Federal elections.

I don't see Bayern going to the SPD, and Niedersachsen is going to be tough. The SPD+Greens need to gain 10% in both Hessen and Niedersachsen, and 8% in Hamburg (in Bayern, over 25%). Will we see an end to the grand coalition if the SPD manages to get a coalition with the greens or the linke in Hessen/Niedersachsen?

P.S. In Berlin, the linke were divided, and lost more than they had to. In Bremen, they were united and gained a lot. Of course, in Berlin they were in the government, but I think the story is clear here.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon May 14th, 2007 at 04:18:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As much as I wish it, I don't see Koch losing in Hessen, unfortunately. Easpecially with those voters from East Hessen...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2007 at 04:41:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Christian Wulff in Niedersachsen is also one of the more popular politicians in Germany, and according to wiki (in German) Ole von Beust won the last elections in Hamburg on personality. The SPD does have a great candidate in Hamburg for the next round. The candidates in Niedersachsen and Hessen still have to prove themselves.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon May 14th, 2007 at 05:26:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't seen any polls for Hessen - it's too far out (01/28/08). The state is a traditional stronghold of the SPD, albeit with a pretty conservative streak of social-democratic voters. You're probably right about Koch. We'll see.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Mon May 14th, 2007 at 08:34:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Check state polls for Hessen here. From the last poll, if the Left Party would trip over the limit, it would actually prevent a right-wing majority (though probably still only a Grand Coalition under Koch would be the result). However, you are right it is far away, and who knows what populist theme Koch plans to ride until then...

While working-class Frankfurt and the Protestant Northeast may be SPD strongholds, the belt of Frankfurt (where I lived) was mixed, the sides of the Taunus are full of well-off conservatives, and the East (region of Fulda) is dominated by an arch-conservative CDU. (Do you remember the Hohmann affair? "Tätervolk"? He was from there. [Incidentally, one eighth of my ancestry also came from there.])

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2007 at 10:00:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure I remember. My personal memory of Hessian politics goes back to the days of Holger Boerner. It's overall a conservative state, even if "culturally" traditionally pro-SPD. I suspect religion may have something to do with it. I believe the north of the state is mostly protestant and therefore SPD-leaning. Whereas the Fulda area is one of the most intensely catholic spots in the country, and of course staunchly CDU. Beautiful region nonetheless.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Mon May 14th, 2007 at 10:35:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Occasional Series