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i think a denounciation of his "BS" whould have deverved her as showing her as willing to keep the status quo, when a large part of the French want changes, whatever the changes.

Sarko is winning because is prensented himself as a dynamic guys who want make changes.

5 or 10 years (presidents are often reelected) of Sarkozyms will probably wake up this bored france.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Fri May 4th, 2007 at 08:36:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a really interesting comment.

Are you saying that "a large part of the French want changes, whatever the changes" because France is "bored"?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Fri May 4th, 2007 at 08:59:40 PM EST
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i think a denounciation of his "BS" whould have deverved her as showing her as willing to keep the status quo, when a large part of the French want changes, whatever the changes.

I fail to see how exposing Sarko's drivel on "full employment" in the UK implies that no reform should be made in France, especially with respect to preparing against unfair competition in a globalizing world

Sarko is winning because is prensented himself as a dynamic guys who want make changes.

He'd be winning because he is a demagogue who exploited the fears and insecurities of the elderly in a fast changing world. In fact, he would have no mandate from the active, vital population.

by Fete des fous on Fri May 4th, 2007 at 11:36:06 PM EST
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Sarkozy voters are the majority in all parts of the population but 18-24 !!!

18-24 are always wrong, not a news, and at this moment they are lazy enough to dream only about being public workers.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 01:41:59 AM EST
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IPSOS 03/05 (it is likely to be even more toward Sarko now since he is going above 55% in all more recent polls)

AGE             SR      Sarko

  • 18 à 24 ans   62++     38--
  • 25 à 34 ans   47       53
  • 35 à 49 ans   48       52
  • 50 à 64 ans   44       56
  • 65 ans et plus 34--     66++
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 01:52:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarkozy voters are the majority in all parts of the population but 18-24 !!!

The IFOP poll from April 28 contradicts this: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer on April 29th, 2007.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 04:44:26 AM EST
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get real mates, 75% are not realistic, and with more than 55% voting for Sarko, it cannot be only those who are 65+, they are not that many.
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 10:57:21 AM EST
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18% of voting age population is 65+.

I'd say they're likely to vote relatively more than younger voters.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 12:32:27 PM EST
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As I suspected all along, here is another exit poll (TNS-SOFRES) which contradicts IPSOS about the 25-34 age group.

the exit poll numbers (age group, Royal's %, Sarko's %):

  • 18-24 60 40
  • 25-34 54 46
  • 35-49 51 49
  • 50-64 41 59
  • 65+ 36 64

tns-sofres exit poll, see page 2

There is now even less doubt that Sarko is the president of the retirees who were most sensitive to his security/anti-immigration propaganda. The IPSOS exit poll numbers ascribing the 24-35 age group to Sarko at 57% didn't make much sense, and the difference with this poll is so large (an 11 point difference) that one can only wonder what happened ...

by Fete des fous on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 02:35:49 PM EST
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These exit polls are all over the place, so it's hard to know what really happened. Two things are cristal clear in all:

  • the young voted strongly for Royal
  • the old voted even more strongly for Sarkozy

In between, it's a lot hard to say.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 04:38:46 PM EST
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Which exit polls are you talking about? I looked for other polls a couple of weeks ago and couldn't find any apart from the IPSOS one. A 10 point difference among the 25-34 y.o. between 2 polls is huge and cannot be due to random error. Either the methodologies are very wrong or worse.

If I am right that it means the elections were decided primarily by the security/immigration issues, it doesn't say much for the effectiveness of the declinist propaganda.

I note the unwillingness of the media to even mention the age divide in the vote. It seems the left should discuss this point as widely as possible before the legislatives.

by Fete des fous on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 05:20:48 PM EST
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The TNS/Sofres poll linked to just above (thanks for the link, btw) may not be an exit poll; according to the fiche technique its a telephone poll conducted on election day.

One could make that case that on a nice spring day, younger voters are less likely to be at home answering the phone and presumably, an actual exit poll has a much lower margin for error since it gets a better (and larger) sample of actual voters, but simple common sense suggests an error in the IPSOS age cross-tabs.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue May 29th, 2007 at 02:32:28 AM EST
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Both the TNS-SOFRES and the IPSOS-DELL were conducted over the phone on the evening of the election. They also share the quotas method, the only difference in the method appears to be sample size (1200 versus 3600 people interviewed).
by Fete des fous on Tue May 29th, 2007 at 07:42:30 AM EST
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"In fact, he would have no mandate from the active, vital population."

Pure speculation and indeed false. Where did you get such figures from?

by skovgaard on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 12:02:23 PM EST
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How can Sarkozy, who was in the government for the past 3 years as Finance minister, as Interior Minister, as Ministre d'Etat... present himself as the candidate for "change", and succeed?

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 04:53:21 AM EST
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That is the talent to be a good politician but he had to follow what Chirac decided, and Chirac was everything but right-wing.

Chirac has been affraid by the leftists since May68, this period is going to an end, Sarko will be a non-ashamed Right-wing and one of the most, if not the most, important leader in Europe.

By the way, with the disappearance of Lepen, The left will find very difficult to get back in power.

It is really an new era.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sat May 5th, 2007 at 10:55:21 AM EST
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