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French voters last night delivered a setback to Nicolas Sarkozy's hopes of a complete domination of the political scene. The rightwing president won a smaller than expected majority in the French national assembly, but still has a clear mandate for his sweeping economic reforms.A surprise surge by the Socialists stemmed the conservative "tidal wave" predicted to totally dominate parliament and dealt Mr Sarkozy a severe blow by knocking out one of his most important senior ministers, Alain Juppé. Article continues The emergence of a strong leftwing parliamentary opposition marked the first political hiccup for the reformist president who swept to power last month and has been basking in record popularity.In the biggest embarrassment, Mr Juppé, who had been considered the third most important man in Mr Sarkozy's cabinet, was beaten by Socialists in his former fiefdom of Bordeaux. The former prime minister had been invited into the cabinet following a break from politics after his conviction in a party financing scandal. Mr Sarkozy had appointed him to head an environmental super-ministry. Last night Mr Juppé said he would resign.
A surprise surge by the Socialists stemmed the conservative "tidal wave" predicted to totally dominate parliament and dealt Mr Sarkozy a severe blow by knocking out one of his most important senior ministers, Alain Juppé.
Article continues The emergence of a strong leftwing parliamentary opposition marked the first political hiccup for the reformist president who swept to power last month and has been basking in record popularity.
In the biggest embarrassment, Mr Juppé, who had been considered the third most important man in Mr Sarkozy's cabinet, was beaten by Socialists in his former fiefdom of Bordeaux. The former prime minister had been invited into the cabinet following a break from politics after his conviction in a party financing scandal. Mr Sarkozy had appointed him to head an environmental super-ministry. Last night Mr Juppé said he would resign.
FT paper version of the European edition (the vote is at the bottom of the first column in the UK edition)
And this in the WSJ:
Sarkozy's Bittersweet Win French Voters Hand UMP Muted Victory As Discord Emerges PARIS -- A victory by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's party in parliamentary elections yesterday was overshadowed by signs of discord within his cabinet and the resignation of the government's second in command. Mr. Sarkozy will have a supportive assembly for the next five years to back his goals to revive the French economy and reposition France as a central player in European affairs. But the president's center-right UMP party won far less than the landslide majority pollsters had predicted, marking his first political setback since being elected last month. And, Alain Juppé a former prime minister and a senior minister in Mr. Sarkozy's cabinet, said he will step down as environment minister after he was defeated in the legislative vote.
PARIS -- A victory by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's party in parliamentary elections yesterday was overshadowed by signs of discord within his cabinet and the resignation of the government's second in command.
Mr. Sarkozy will have a supportive assembly for the next five years to back his goals to revive the French economy and reposition France as a central player in European affairs.
But the president's center-right UMP party won far less than the landslide majority pollsters had predicted, marking his first political setback since being elected last month. And, Alain Juppé a former prime minister and a senior minister in Mr. Sarkozy's cabinet, said he will step down as environment minister after he was defeated in the legislative vote.
France was reeling last night from a double political shock. The defeated presidential candidate, Ségolène Royal announced that she had ended her 27-year relationship with the Socialist party leader, François Hollande. The announcement came just after the French people rebuffed President Nicolas Sarkozy, denying him the landslide victory that he had confidently expected in the French parliamentary elections. Mme Royal, 53, chose the end of the long French electoral season to confirm dramatically the persistent rumours of a rift in her long, unmarried relationship with M. Hollande. She said that she had "asked him to leave the home" and that she would be a candidate to replace him as the Socialist Party first secretary next year. The couple have four children, aged 15 to 24. In a book to appear on Wednesday, Mme Royal will, in effect, confirm rumours that M. Hollande has been in a relationship with another woman. "I have asked François Hollande to leave the family home and to continue alone the romantic life, which will now be plastered all over the books and newspapers. I have wished him every happiness," Mme Royal says in the book, Corridors of a defeat, by Christine Courcol and Thierry Masure. The announcement came just as M. Hollande and the Socialist Party were celebrating a relative triumph in the second round of the parliamentary elections.
France was reeling last night from a double political shock. The defeated presidential candidate, Ségolène Royal announced that she had ended her 27-year relationship with the Socialist party leader, François Hollande.
The announcement came just after the French people rebuffed President Nicolas Sarkozy, denying him the landslide victory that he had confidently expected in the French parliamentary elections.
Mme Royal, 53, chose the end of the long French electoral season to confirm dramatically the persistent rumours of a rift in her long, unmarried relationship with M. Hollande. She said that she had "asked him to leave the home" and that she would be a candidate to replace him as the Socialist Party first secretary next year. The couple have four children, aged 15 to 24.
In a book to appear on Wednesday, Mme Royal will, in effect, confirm rumours that M. Hollande has been in a relationship with another woman. "I have asked François Hollande to leave the family home and to continue alone the romantic life, which will now be plastered all over the books and newspapers. I have wished him every happiness," Mme Royal says in the book, Corridors of a defeat, by Christine Courcol and Thierry Masure.
The announcement came just as M. Hollande and the Socialist Party were celebrating a relative triumph in the second round of the parliamentary elections.
...and to continue alone the romantic life, which will now be plastered all over the books and newspapers.
She did not say "which will be", she said "as is already". Don't their journalists speak French?
The exact quote
"J'ai demandé à François Hollande de quitter le domicile, de vivre son histoire sentimentale de son côté, désormais étalée dans les livres et les journaux, et je lui ai souhaité d'être heureux.
Will she run against him, or just to replace him?
This is just what the PS needs, to give the press the chance to focus on the personal feuds instead of personality and policy when it comes to the PS leadership. Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
There will be a few headlines and books in the coming days, at that will be the end of it.
Something to be proud of in France, I hope it will last.
This morning's Xavier Gorce cartoon, on target as always. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday night won a solid parliamentary majority to push through his reform agenda, in spite of a surprise rebound by France's opposition Socialists who had stoked last-minute fears of the government's tax-raising plans.The ruling centre-right UMP and its allies had a reduced majority, with 346 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to Interior Ministry figures. Even so, this is the first time a sitting government has been returned to office since 1978.ADVERTISEMENTThe Socialist party and its allies performed far better in the second round than polls had forecast and increased their parliamentary representation to 231 seats.
President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday night won a solid parliamentary majority to push through his reform agenda, in spite of a surprise rebound by France's opposition Socialists who had stoked last-minute fears of the government's tax-raising plans.
The ruling centre-right UMP and its allies had a reduced majority, with 346 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to Interior Ministry figures. Even so, this is the first time a sitting government has been returned to office since 1978.
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The Socialist party and its allies performed far better in the second round than polls had forecast and increased their parliamentary representation to 231 seats.
PARIS: The conservative party of President Nicolas Sarkozy won a solid victory in parliamentary elections Sunday but failed to secure the rout of the left that polls had predicted. In a sign that the left is alive and well in France, three polling institutes estimated that Sarkozy's governing Union for a Popular Movement and allies would win 318 to 323 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. The polling groups projected that the Socialists would win 206 to 212 seats. That outcome reflected a net gain of seats for the left and a net loss for the right. Sarkozy's party had 359 seats in the outgoing National Assembly, while the Socialists had 149. In the most high-stakes contest, Alain Juppé - Sarkozy's head of a new high-profile mega-ministry for the environment, transportation and energy, and also the mayor of Bordeaux - lost to a Socialist. He announced that he would step down as minister, effectively the No. 2 position in the government, a humiliating setback for the Sarkozy government.
PARIS: The conservative party of President Nicolas Sarkozy won a solid victory in parliamentary elections Sunday but failed to secure the rout of the left that polls had predicted.
In a sign that the left is alive and well in France, three polling institutes estimated that Sarkozy's governing Union for a Popular Movement and allies would win 318 to 323 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. The polling groups projected that the Socialists would win 206 to 212 seats.
That outcome reflected a net gain of seats for the left and a net loss for the right. Sarkozy's party had 359 seats in the outgoing National Assembly, while the Socialists had 149.
In the most high-stakes contest, Alain Juppé - Sarkozy's head of a new high-profile mega-ministry for the environment, transportation and energy, and also the mayor of Bordeaux - lost to a Socialist. He announced that he would step down as minister, effectively the No. 2 position in the government, a humiliating setback for the Sarkozy government.
The Senate is structurally rightwing, not sure if it's more than 60% rightwing, especially as I expect it has a lot of UDF Senators which haven't yet chosen between the MoDem and the "New Center" In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
In other words, I think Sarko's power to make amendments to the constitution has been fairly seriously weakened by yesterday's election.
Since it's a proportional indirect election though, the left wing always have a fair share of the senate, unlike in the parliament.
Also, the recent tendency is that after an election the RPR-UMP wouldn't give support to UDF members not rallied to the president's party ; thus in the Assemblée Nationale the deputies had a strong incentive to go to the UMP, whereas senators (with their 9 years mandate, some were elected in 1998... )didn't have this incentive and remained in the center right party. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
Article 18 Le Président de la République communique avec les deux assemblées du Parlement par des messages qu'il fait lire et qui ne donnent lieu à aucun débat. Hors session, le Parlement est réuni spécialement à cet effet.
I don't see a need to change the constitution to do what Nicolas Sarkozy promised here.
To count the right in senate you have to add UMP (155) and UC-UDF (33) giving 188 of the senate so 56.8% on the right.
I don't know how much of UC-UDF senators can be considered friends of MoDem but I suspect very few.
On the total congress, result for the right is very slightly above 3/5 but my guess is that it's useless because it would require too much discipline and not everyone loves Sarkozy on the right (and senators mostly don't care).
I counted the Radicaux valoisiens as right of centre and likely (but not certain) to side with Sarkozy. It's not that I hate the Valoisiens, but I've never seen them side with the left.
But the main point is that UC-UDF is on the right, that's what gives the french senate its right-wing untouchable majority.
But the main omission from your account is still UC-UDF :).
Just to not give in on the Radicaux Valoisiens in-a-phone-booth (:)), when was there a Radical Valoisien in a left government?
Anyway, the real point is that Sarko would have to get out his oars and row if he wanted a 3/5 majority of Congress for anything but a consensual amendment to the constitution.
http://ceteris-paribus.blogspot.com/2007/06/des-rvisions-qui-se-perdent.html
[...] Comme le relève en passant Christophe Jakubyszyn, le seuil important est bien celui des trois cinquièmes des parlementaires réunis en Congrès, soit au plus 545 suffrages sur les 908 députés et sénateurs. La droite détient-elle aujourd'hui cette majorité? Il me semble que non. L'UMP compte aujourd'hui 155 sénateurs et 313 députés élus sous son étiquette, soit 468 parlementaires. Pour reconstituer la majorité présidentielle, il semblerait logique d'y adjoindre les 9 députés divers droite, les 22 membres du Nouveau centre, et la très libérale députée du MPF. Nous voilà à 500. On peut à la limite y rajouter une partie des 32 membres du groupe UDF au Sénat. Mais cela ne permet pas d'arriver aux fameux trois cinquièmes, même en allant chercher les aiguilles droitières dans la petite meule de foin que constitue le groupe RDSE. [...]
L'UMP compte aujourd'hui 155 sénateurs et 313 députés élus sous son étiquette, soit 468 parlementaires. Pour reconstituer la majorité présidentielle, il semblerait logique d'y adjoindre les 9 députés divers droite, les 22 membres du Nouveau centre, et la très libérale députée du MPF. Nous voilà à 500. On peut à la limite y rajouter une partie des 32 membres du groupe UDF au Sénat. Mais cela ne permet pas d'arriver aux fameux trois cinquièmes, même en allant chercher les aiguilles droitières dans la petite meule de foin que constitue le groupe RDSE. [...]
Same conclusion as ours, too fragile so Nicolas Sarkozy has likely lost that option from the left relative strengh in this last election.
107 women (vs 76 previously) 61 from the left (out of 228 - 27%) 49 PS (out of 190 - 26%) 46 on the right(45 UMP)(out of 349 - 13%)
Better, but not great, and it shows that the ability to evade the parity law (which imposes 40% of candidates at least for each sex but can be circumvented by fines) is still high. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
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