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SPECIAL FOCUS FRENCH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
by Fran on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:30:18 AM EST
Sarkozy heads for big victory in parliament | Special reports | Guardian Unlimited
French voters last night delivered a setback to Nicolas Sarkozy's hopes of a complete domination of the political scene. The rightwing president won a smaller than expected majority in the French national assembly, but still has a clear mandate for his sweeping economic reforms.

A surprise surge by the Socialists stemmed the conservative "tidal wave" predicted to totally dominate parliament and dealt Mr Sarkozy a severe blow by knocking out one of his most important senior ministers, Alain Juppé.

Article continues The emergence of a strong leftwing parliamentary opposition marked the first political hiccup for the reformist president who swept to power last month and has been basking in record popularity.

In the biggest embarrassment, Mr Juppé, who had been considered the third most important man in Mr Sarkozy's cabinet, was beaten by Socialists in his former fiefdom of Bordeaux. The former prime minister had been invited into the cabinet following a break from politics after his conviction in a party financing scandal. Mr Sarkozy had appointed him to head an environmental super-ministry. Last night Mr Juppé said he would resign.

by Fran on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:32:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why is the Guardian putting a pro-Sarkozy headline? This is not a "big" victory in any sense. Sure, it's a victory. But a big one?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:44:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because Guardian = Labour = New Labour = Blair = Right Wing.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:36:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Le Monde website

FT paper version of the European edition (the vote is at the bottom of the first column in the UK edition)

And this in the WSJ:


Sarkozy's Bittersweet Win French Voters Hand UMP Muted Victory As Discord Emerges

PARIS -- A victory by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's party in parliamentary elections yesterday was overshadowed by signs of discord within his cabinet and the resignation of the government's second in command.

Mr. Sarkozy will have a supportive assembly for the next five years to back his goals to revive the French economy and reposition France as a central player in European affairs.

But the president's center-right UMP party won far less than the landslide majority pollsters had predicted, marking his first political setback since being elected last month. And, Alain Juppé a former prime minister and a senior minister in Mr. Sarkozy's cabinet, said he will step down as environment minister after he was defeated in the legislative vote.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 06:53:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm going to have to calculate the power index of the various proposals for vote weighing in the Council, just to shut up the Poles and their "Penrose square root rule".

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:44:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
'Blue tidal wave' held back as Royal splits from Hollande - Independent Online Edition > Europe

France was reeling last night from a double political shock. The defeated presidential candidate, Ségolène Royal announced that she had ended her 27-year relationship with the Socialist party leader, François Hollande.

The announcement came just after the French people rebuffed President Nicolas Sarkozy, denying him the landslide victory that he had confidently expected in the French parliamentary elections.

Mme Royal, 53, chose the end of the long French electoral season to confirm dramatically the persistent rumours of a rift in her long, unmarried relationship with M. Hollande. She said that she had "asked him to leave the home" and that she would be a candidate to replace him as the Socialist Party first secretary next year. The couple have four children, aged 15 to 24.

In a book to appear on Wednesday, Mme Royal will, in effect, confirm rumours that M. Hollande has been in a relationship with another woman. "I have asked François Hollande to leave the family home and to continue alone the romantic life, which will now be plastered all over the books and newspapers. I have wished him every happiness," Mme Royal says in the book, Corridors of a defeat, by Christine Courcol and Thierry Masure.

The announcement came just as M. Hollande and the Socialist Party were celebrating a relative triumph in the second round of the parliamentary elections.

by Fran on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:34:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Note to Jerome: see how the Independent says Sarkozy was denied the landslide he sought while the Guardian says he won decisively. Which paper is more "left-leaning"?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:37:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

...and to continue alone the romantic life, which will now be plastered all over the books and newspapers.

She did not say "which will be", she said "as is already". Don't their journalists speak French?

The exact quote


"J'ai demandé à François Hollande de quitter le domicile, de vivre son histoire sentimentale de son côté, désormais étalée dans les livres et les journaux, et je lui ai souhaité d'être heureux.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:50:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She said that she had "asked him to leave the home" and that she would be a candidate to replace him as the Socialist Party first secretary next year.

Will she run against him, or just to replace him?

This is just what the PS needs, to give the press the chance to focus on the personal feuds instead of personality and policy when it comes to the PS leadership.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To the credit of all french politician (including UMP and right-wing politicians), even when bombarded by "journalists" with questions about the split, they all say it's private matter and not politics.

There will be a few headlines and books in the coming days, at that will be the end of it.

Something to be proud of in France, I hope it will last.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:07:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but I expect that the media and pundit class will be violently "tested" on that front by the expected crises in the Nico-Cecilia couple...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:26:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This morning's Xavier Gorce cartoon, on target as always.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 06:55:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"as I'd like this to remain part of my private sphere"
"I'll speak only very briefly about my couple"

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 06:56:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
has said he would step down and not run again, so she won't run against him in any case.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:09:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / In depth - Sarkozy secures mandate for reform

President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday night won a solid parliamentary majority to push through his reform agenda, in spite of a surprise rebound by France's opposition Socialists who had stoked last-minute fears of the government's tax-raising plans.

The ruling centre-right UMP and its allies had a re­duced majority, with 346 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to Interior Ministry figures. Even so, this is the first time a sitting government has been returned to office since 1978.

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The Socialist party and its allies performed far better in the second round than polls had forecast and increased their parliamentary representation to 231 seats.

by Fran on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:43:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
French election cements control by Sarkozy - International Herald Tribune

PARIS: The conservative party of President Nicolas Sarkozy won a solid victory in parliamentary elections Sunday but failed to secure the rout of the left that polls had predicted.

In a sign that the left is alive and well in France, three polling institutes estimated that Sarkozy's governing Union for a Popular Movement and allies would win 318 to 323 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. The polling groups projected that the Socialists would win 206 to 212 seats.

That outcome reflected a net gain of seats for the left and a net loss for the right. Sarkozy's party had 359 seats in the outgoing National Assembly, while the Socialists had 149.

In the most high-stakes contest, Alain Juppé - Sarkozy's head of a new high-profile mega-ministry for the environment, transportation and energy, and also the mayor of Bordeaux - lost to a Socialist. He announced that he would step down as minister, effectively the No. 2 position in the government, a humiliating setback for the Sarkozy government.

by Fran on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:52:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:42:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In other words:
  • UMP: -35
  • NC + MoDem (ex UDF): -3
  • PS: + 56
  • PCF: -3
  • Verts: +4
  • Who are the 14 "Divers" in the outgoing Assembly?
In addition, as was pointed out in yesterday's thread, the key here is the 3/5 threshold for constitutional amendment, which is at 347 seats. You need UMP, NC and MoDem to exceed that threshold.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:41:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You need 3/5 of "Congrès", i.e. Parliament + Senate

The Senate is structurally rightwing, not sure if it's more than 60% rightwing, especially as I expect it has a lot of UDF Senators which haven't yet chosen between the MoDem and the "New Center"

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:52:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Spain you need 3/5 of each house, or 2/3 of the lower house. I assumed it must be similar in France.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:09:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The National Assembly and the Senate meet in a special Congress at Versailles. That's already a whole programme.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:45:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the breakdown as I see it for the moment:

  • National Assembly..577
  • Senate.................331
  • Total in Congress..908
  • 3/5 majority..........545

  • UMP deputies..324
  • UMP senators..155
  • UMP total........479
  • Shortfall.......545-479 = 66

Where could the UMP get allies?

  • Nouveau Centre deputies...........22
  • Right-wing senators from RDSE...8
  • Total....................................30
  • New shortfall..........66-30 = 36

There would remain a non-aligned ragbag of 7 senators, and, most of all, Centre-UDF senators, 32. Sarkozy would need to get 36 out of 39 on his side. Possible but not obvious. Even the 8 I counted from RDSE are mostly centrists who might not go his way.

In other words, I think Sarko's power to make amendments to the constitution has been fairly seriously weakened by yesterday's election.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmm, this seems to contradict the assertion that the Senate is "structurally right-leaning". The UMP has only 47% of the seats in the Senate.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:49:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
UMP having an absolute majority in parliament is a new phenomenon ;  it used to be that the right wing was 2/3 - 1/3 RPR and UDF. There has always been a UDF-UMP majority in the senate, and it evolves very slowly.

Since it's a proportional indirect election though, the left wing always have a fair share of the senate, unlike in the parliament.

Also, the recent tendency is that after an election the RPR-UMP wouldn't give support to UDF members not rallied to the president's party ; thus in the Assemblée Nationale the deputies had a strong incentive to go to the UMP, whereas senators (with their 9 years mandate, some were elected in 1998... )didn't have this incentive and remained in the center right party.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How much of Sarko's program depended on reforming the Constitution?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:50:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarko said so many things I don't know what his "programme" really was. I was thinking here more that there was, here, at least one significant breach in his (almost) across-the-board political powers. If he should wish to change the constitution for whatever reason, he'll probably need to be consensual about it.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:59:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, one of his high-profile "promises" was to institute something akin to the State of the Union address, in which the President would address the Parlement and give an account of the year. Since the presence of the President in the Assembly would require an amendment to the Constitution, its a issue where Hollande was already taunting Sarkozy yesterday. He asked when they would make this change, clearly hoping to get this point accross.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 11:57:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The president can communicate to the assemblies following article 18:


Article 18
Le Président de la République communique avec les deux assemblées du Parlement par des messages qu'il fait lire et qui ne donnent lieu à aucun débat.
Hors session, le Parlement est réuni spécialement à cet effet.

I don't see a need to change the constitution to do what Nicolas Sarkozy promised here.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:46:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Sarkozy wanted to address a joint session of the Congrès in person, and receive a standing ovation, and stuff. That, he can't do.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this is exactly right -- he wants to appear "presidential" in that way. In any event, it was this promise that Hollande chose to raise on tv Sunda night as one that needed a modification of the constitution, clealry hoping the inexperienced Yada wold take the bait and promise a constitutional amendment that the left can now probably block.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Jun 19th, 2007 at 04:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
RDSE is left wing (PRG), not right IIRC.

To count the right in senate you have to add UMP (155) and UC-UDF (33) giving 188 of the senate so 56.8% on the right.

I don't know how much of UC-UDF senators can be considered friends of MoDem but I suspect very few.

On the total congress, result for the right is very slightly above 3/5 but my guess is that it's useless because it would require too much discipline and not everyone loves Sarkozy on the right (and senators mostly don't care).

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:49:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Take a look at the Wikipédia link I gave with RDSE. It's a mixed bag. There's even a Villieriste.

I counted the Radicaux valoisiens as right of centre and likely (but not certain) to side with Sarkozy. It's not that I hate the Valoisiens, but I've never seen them side with the left.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
By this account even most of the PS left can be counted on the right :).

But the main point is that UC-UDF is on the right, that's what gives the french senate its right-wing untouchable majority.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 11:31:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why, where would you place the Radicaux Valoisiens? (Serious answer, please ;))
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
couldn't resist.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:09:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some of them hold positions in both right, and left governments, it's hard to tell. May be they just went together because a party with N members could get some advantage from the senate.

But the main omission from your account is still UC-UDF :).

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:51:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not missing - I called it Centre-UDF. 32 members, in fact (see the Sénat page I linked to).

Just to not give in on the Radicaux Valoisiens in-a-phone-booth (:)), when was there a Radical Valoisien in a left government?

Anyway, the real point is that Sarko would have to get out his oars and row if he wanted a 3/5 majority of Congress for anything but a consensual amendment to the constitution.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:09:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Emmanuel at Ceteris Paribus has some counting:

http://ceteris-paribus.blogspot.com/2007/06/des-rvisions-qui-se-perdent.html


[...]
Comme le relève en passant Christophe Jakubyszyn, le seuil important est bien celui des trois cinquièmes des parlementaires réunis en Congrès, soit au plus 545 suffrages sur les 908 députés et sénateurs. La droite détient-elle aujourd'hui cette majorité? Il me semble que non.

L'UMP compte aujourd'hui 155 sénateurs et 313 députés élus sous son étiquette, soit 468 parlementaires. Pour reconstituer la majorité présidentielle, il semblerait logique d'y adjoindre les 9 députés divers droite, les 22 membres du Nouveau centre, et la très libérale députée du MPF. Nous voilà à 500. On peut à la limite y rajouter une partie des 32 membres du groupe UDF au Sénat. Mais cela ne permet pas d'arriver aux fameux trois cinquièmes, même en allant chercher les aiguilles droitières dans la petite meule de foin que constitue le groupe RDSE.
[...]

Same conclusion as ours, too fragile so Nicolas Sarkozy has likely lost that option from the left relative strengh in this last election.

by Laurent GUERBY on Tue Jun 19th, 2007 at 06:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final tally for women:

107 women (vs 76 previously)
61 from the left (out of 228 - 27%)
49 PS (out of 190 - 26%)
46 on the right(45 UMP)(out of 349 - 13%)

Better, but not great, and it shows that the ability to evade the parity law (which imposes 40% of candidates at least for each sex but can be circumvented by fines) is still high.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:54:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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