European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch – 18 June | 89 comments (89 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 4)

This is the breakdown as I see it for the moment:

National Assembly..577
Senate.................331
Total in Congress..908
3/5 majority..........545
UMP deputies..324
UMP senators..155
UMP total........479
Shortfall.......545-479 = 66

Where could the UMP get allies?

Nouveau Centre deputies...........22
Right-wing senators from RDSE...8
Total....................................30
New shortfall..........66-30 = 36

There would remain a non-aligned ragbag of 7 senators, and, most of all, Centre-UDF senators, 32. Sarkozy would need to get 36 out of 39 on his side. Possible but not obvious. Even the 8 I counted from RDSE are mostly centrists who might not go his way.

In other words, I think Sarko's power to make amendments to the constitution has been fairly seriously weakened by yesterday's election.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 2)

Hmm, this seems to contradict the assertion that the Senate is "structurally right-leaning". The UMP has only 47% of the seats in the Senate.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:49:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 3)

UMP having an absolute majority in parliament is a new phenomenon ; it used to be that the right wing was 2/3 - 1/3 RPR and UDF. There has always been a UDF-UMP majority in the senate, and it evolves very slowly.

Since it's a proportional indirect election though, the left wing always have a fair share of the senate, unlike in the parliament.

Also, the recent tendency is that after an election the RPR-UMP wouldn't give support to UDF members not rallied to the president's party ; thus in the Assemblée Nationale the deputies had a strong incentive to go to the UMP, whereas senators (with their 9 years mandate, some were elected in 1998... )didn't have this incentive and remained in the center right party.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:07:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 2)

How much of Sarko's program depended on reforming the Constitution?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:50:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 2)

Sarko said so many things I don't know what his "programme" really was. I was thinking here more that there was, here, at least one significant breach in his (almost) across-the-board political powers. If he should wish to change the constitution for whatever reason, he'll probably need to be consensual about it.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:59:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 2)

Well, one of his high-profile "promises" was to institute something akin to the State of the Union address, in which the President would address the Parlement and give an account of the year. Since the presence of the President in the Assembly would require an amendment to the Constitution, its a issue where Hollande was already taunting Sarkozy yesterday. He asked when they would make this change, clearly hoping to get this point accross.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 11:57:24 AM EST
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President to assemblies (4.00 / 2)

The president can communicate to the assemblies following article 18:

Article 18
Le Président de la République communique avec les deux assemblées du Parlement par des messages qu'il fait lire et qui ne donnent lieu à aucun débat.
Hors session, le Parlement est réuni spécialement à cet effet.

I don't see a need to change the constitution to do what Nicolas Sarkozy promised here.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:46:36 PM EST
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Re: President to assemblies (none / 1)

But Sarkozy wanted to address a joint session of the Congrès in person, and receive a standing ovation, and stuff. That, he can't do.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:01:22 PM EST
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Re: President to assemblies (none / 1)

I think this is exactly right -- he wants to appear "presidential" in that way. In any event, it was this promise that Hollande chose to raise on tv Sunda night as one that needed a modification of the constitution, clealry hoping the inexperienced Yada wold take the bait and promise a constitutional amendment that the left can now probably block.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Jun 19th, 2007 at 04:11:52 PM EST
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Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (none / 1)

RDSE is left wing (PRG), not right IIRC.

To count the right in senate you have to add UMP (155) and UC-UDF (33) giving 188 of the senate so 56.8% on the right.

I don't know how much of UC-UDF senators can be considered friends of MoDem but I suspect very few.

On the total congress, result for the right is very slightly above 3/5 but my guess is that it's useless because it would require too much discipline and not everyone loves Sarkozy on the right (and senators mostly don't care).

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:49:04 AM EST
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Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (4.00 / 3)

Take a look at the Wikipédia link I gave with RDSE. It's a mixed bag. There's even a Villieriste.

I counted the Radicaux valoisiens as right of centre and likely (but not certain) to side with Sarkozy. It's not that I hate the Valoisiens, but I've never seen them side with the left.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (none / 1)

By this account even most of the PS left can be counted on the right :).

But the main point is that UC-UDF is on the right, that's what gives the french senate its right-wing untouchable majority.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 11:31:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (none / 1)

Why, where would you place the Radicaux Valoisiens? (Serious answer, please ;))

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In a phone booth ! (none / 1)

couldn't resist.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:09:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (none / 1)

Some of them hold positions in both right, and left governments, it's hard to tell. May be they just went together because a party with N members could get some advantage from the senate.

But the main omission from your account is still UC-UDF :).

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:51:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority (none / 1)

It's not missing - I called it Centre-UDF. 32 members, in fact (see the Sénat page I linked to).

Just to not give in on the Radicaux Valoisiens in-a-phone-booth (:)), when was there a Radical Valoisien in a left government?

Anyway, the real point is that Sarko would have to get out his oars and row if he wanted a 3/5 majority of Congress for anything but a consensual amendment to the constitution.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:09:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A note on the 3/5 majority CP (none / 1)

Emmanuel at Ceteris Paribus has some counting:

http://ceteris-paribus.blogspot.com/2007/06/des-rvisions-qui-se-perdent.html

[...]
Comme le relève en passant Christophe Jakubyszyn, le seuil important est bien celui des trois cinquièmes des parlementaires réunis en Congrès, soit au plus 545 suffrages sur les 908 députés et sénateurs. La droite détient-elle aujourd'hui cette majorité? Il me semble que non.
L'UMP compte aujourd'hui 155 sénateurs et 313 députés élus sous son étiquette, soit 468 parlementaires. Pour reconstituer la majorité présidentielle, il semblerait logique d'y adjoindre les 9 députés divers droite, les 22 membres du Nouveau centre, et la très libérale députée du MPF. Nous voilà à 500. On peut à la limite y rajouter une partie des 32 membres du groupe UDF au Sénat. Mais cela ne permet pas d'arriver aux fameux trois cinquièmes, même en allant chercher les aiguilles droitières dans la petite meule de foin que constitue le groupe RDSE.
[...]

Same conclusion as ours, too fragile so Nicolas Sarkozy has likely lost that option from the left relative strengh in this last election.

by Laurent GUERBY on Tue Jun 19th, 2007 at 06:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch – 18 June | 89 comments (89 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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