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THIS, THAT, AND THE OTHER
by Fran on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 12:12:11 AM EST
BBC NEWS | UK | 'No sun link' to climate change
A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun's output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.

It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen.

It also shows that modern temperatures are not determined by the Sun's effect on cosmic rays, as has been claimed.

Writing in the Royal Society's journal Proceedings A, the researchers say cosmic rays may have affected climate in the past, but not the present.

"This should settle the debate," said Mike Lockwood from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, who carried out the new analysis together with Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland.

by Fran on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 12:19:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's see what the climate change deniers come up with next.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 05:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have not seen mentioned much in these investigations is the earth magnetic field strength - which has gone into a steady decline since ~1850. Does anyone know whether there had been research linking this with the cosmic rays topic?
by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 05:49:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not the first to wonder. Vincent Courtillot (of fame by his work on the volcanic aspect of the Cretaceous extinction) at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris has done with colleagues a very readable overview paper.

ScienceDirect - Earth and Planetary Science Letters : Are there connections between the Earth's magnetic field and climate?

The most intriguing feature may be the recently proposed archeomagnetic jerks, i.e. fairly abrupt ( 100 yr long) geomagnetic field variations found at irregular intervals over the past few millennia, using the archeological record from Europe to the Middle East. These seem to correlate with significant climatic events in the eastern North Atlantic region. A proposed mechanism involves variations in the geometry of the geomagnetic field (f.i. tilt of the dipole to lower latitudes), resulting in enhanced cosmic-ray induced nucleation of clouds. No forcing factor, be it changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere or changes in cosmic ray flux modulated by solar activity and geomagnetism, or possibly other factors, can at present be neglected or shown to be the overwhelming single driver of climate change in past centuries. Intensive data acquisition is required to further probe indications that the Earth's and Sun's magnetic fields may have significant bearing on climate change at certain time scales.
by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 07:52:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Courtillot is a "sceptic" of human causes in GW (i.e. not a complete denier). Two reasons for this: the influence of his former boss Claude Allegre, who is a notorious bugger, and possibly a desire to bring his field of expertise (paleomagnetism) back in the spotlight (and fundings). I read last year that the magnetic field has been stable now for one of the longest periods in the history of the earth and is weakening like it did before previous inversions.

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:27:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Claude Allègre, whom I copiously dislike, seems to me to qualify for the complimentary terms of wanker, dick, prick, and total asshole, but I wasn't aware he was a "notorious bugger". Check the primary sense of "bugger" in a dictionary, and you'll see you just called him a sodomite notoire.

:-D

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:48:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, actually yes, also: he really enjoys sodomizing flies.

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:51:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know much of his perceptions on climate change, but Allegre was a venerable giant in petrology.

As for this:

Pierre:

the magnetic field has been stable now for one of the longest periods in the history of the earth and is weakening like it did before previous inversions

Yes, it is weakening like what is seemingly happening before other inversions, but stable? The last inversion was (top of my head) some 800.000 years ago (Wikipedia check: 780.000 years). That's not particularly long, considering the 37 million years of the Cretaceous Long Normal Superchron. And during the past 780.000 years it doesn't look that stable to me...

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 09:23:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant: it did not reverse. before our stretch of 800k years, it used to reverse every 10-100k years for millions of years.

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 09:30:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As long as we don't really know what causes reversals, that's still okay. It has been recognised that variations in the current period have a periodicity of 10 and 100k years. Apparently the field did not flip even during the variations. Yet is the internal motor of the magnetic field actually stable - who knows?

I -think- (danger Will Robinson danger!!!) it could work like flipping a coin: every time the dynamic destabilises it has a 50% chance of actually uprighting itself again (non-reversal) or the field turns over completely. If so, in the current period the field has destabilised previously but just never reversed.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 10:34:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It flipped too many times back on the same side in the present chron. The coin has to be loaded...

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 10:41:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
system could have internal resistance to change - what's the law called in thermodynamics... Then it's not a 50 - 50% chance.

Otherwise the question becomes: loaded with what?

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 10:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the law is called "conservation of angular momentum".

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 11:11:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yeah, that would tend to keep the dynamo pretty much upright all the time. It's dynamics law, no need for thermodynamics here. I don't think the whole problem involves any statistical mechanics here, just very complicated navier-stokes + heat generation and transfer + current loops. Probably as bad as plasma dynamics, and the PDE have solutions that are extremely sensitive to initial conditions, yet the stable dynamo is an attractor and all the chaos stuff that was trendy 15 years ago and everybody's jaded.

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 11:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But how does this play with tabloid readers ? The BBC played its usual dishonest "he said she said" game by having two opposed views and pretending that an actual debate still exists in scientific circles. so you just have two scientists arguing past each other and the public asume the jury is still out.

It could be Fox for all the use it is. Trouble is that I know a lot of journos at the BBC are climate change sceptics, they don't understand the science so they give equal weight to both sides.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:26:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Blame Bovine Belching: Changing Cows' Diet Could Cut Emissions - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

Cows are methane-making machines, with their inefficient digestion producing hundreds of liters of the greenhouse gas every day. Now scientists are looking at ways to make things go down a little more gently for the ruminanting grass-munchers.

Cows are burping too much methane for the world's good. While people are being asked to reduce the amounts of flights they take and make their homes more energy efficient, what they put on their plates could be having as big an impact on climate change. Gas-guzzling SUVs and badly insulated buildings are partly to blame for the earth's greenhouse gas emissions, but it seems the humble grass-munching cow is also a major culprit.

Agriculture is responsible for producing 37 percent of global methane emissions, a gas that is 23 times more potent than CO2 when it comes to global warming. And much of this gas comes from the burps of ruminating animals such as cows and sheep. If a cow's manners could be improved a bit, then the world might just stop warming quite so fast. And it could be as simple as getting them to graze on different types of plants. Scientists at the University of Aberystwyth are now working on using plant-breeding methods to develop new diets for livestock.

by Fran on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 12:27:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This pretty much makes the cycle complete. Driving, gas consumption, ethanol, less grain, animals belching, modify diet of animals...don't reduce driving or make more efficient vehicles a requirement with their concomitant societal and health benefits...don't reduce meat consumption, with its concomitant better health impact...

It is too nice a day to be cynical...get on bike...take train to meeting...think creative thoughts...create jobs and have some of that vision thing...

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 03:29:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Complete baby turns up in Siberia | Science | Guardian Unlimited
Its tail is lopsided. Close up, it looks suspiciously like a small, and unremarkable, Asian elephant.

But scientists were yesterday hailing the sensational discovery of a perfectly preserved baby woolly mammoth, which died around 10,000 years ago and was found in the frozen tundra of northern Russia. Experts said the six-month-old female calf was a rare complete specimen. The animal's trunk and eyes are intact. It even has fur.

A reindeer herder, Yuri Khudi, stumbled across the carcass in May near the Yuribei river in Russia's Yamal-Nenents autonomous district, in a virtually inaccessible part of north-western Siberia.

Extinct woolly mammoths - and giant tusks - have turned up in Siberia for centuries. But it is unusual for a complete example to be recovered. The last major find was in 1997 when a family in the neighbouring Taymyr Peninsula came across a tusk attached to what turned out to be a 20,380-year-old mammoth carcass.

The latest 130cm tall, 50kg Siberian specimen appears to have died just as the species was heading for extinction during the last ice age. It is being sent to Japan for further tests.

by Fran on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 12:56:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shrum is here to ruin everything

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2123314,00.html

One troubling sign is that Washington rumour has it that Bob Shrum, the political consultant who advised Michael Dukakis, Gore and Kerry, and who boasts a staggering record of eight defeats in eight US presidential elections, is set to move to London - to advise his old pal, Brown


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:52:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Campbell's real crime against government

Campbell's failing was the opposite of the one usually laid at his door, that he used the power of government to corrupt the press. From the moment he entered Downing Street he used the power of the press to corrupt government. To him a good decision was anything that next day's Murdoch or Rothermere editors would applaud. If Campbell declared a policy unacceptable to the media (such as drugs reform), it was dead. Since he operated with the authority of the prime minister, ministers had to take his word as gospel. Soon government was operating on a strict 24-hour cycle, measured not in policy outcomes but in headlines, news snatches, soundbites. Success was a good picture that edged out a bad one, an "initiative", however vacuous, that smothered bad news.


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:56:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ooops, sorry, that was from the Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2123361,00.html

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:57:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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