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Which pretty much tells the whole story of non-nuclear alternatives.

Nah. It tells the story of the painless-in-the-short-term alternatives.

  • make people pay for all the externalities in electricity production (see the EU report I have pointed to many times, from ExternE - no link, I'm on dialup);

  • mandate more wind - stop doing it on a one windturbine per one windturbine basis as they've done so far.

  • get serious about car energy consumption. No new cars with mpg below 50, full stop (hey, that should be good for high tech manufacturers - or are these only in France and Italy?)

  • get serious about priorities re train infrastructure vs roads.

  • get serious about housing insulation. No new building without top notch standards, and a crash programme to refurbish older stock (hey, that should be good for business)

The technology is there, the costs are known (and can only go down further if there is a large scale programme), as are the benefits.

Then we'll see if nuclear is actually needed. Maybe it will be; maybe not.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 09:21:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No new cars with mpg below 50, full stop (hey, that should be good for high tech manufacturers - or are these only in France and Italy?)

Siemens, Infineon, Bosch and plenty of others... No shortage of technology companies in Germany.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 09:28:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
when one hears the howls of outrage from German business to the current mild proposals...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 11:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah. It tells the story of the painless-in-the-short-term alternatives.

Do you seriously think we will see any real, painful, change before the proverbial shit hits the proverbial fan?

It took the 1973 oil crisis to get Sweden and France going, and for the rest of the world, even that crisis wasn't enough.

make people pay for all the externalities in electricity production (see the EU report I have pointed to many times, from ExternE - no link, I'm on dialup);

That's a great study, more people should read it.

mandate more wind - stop doing it on a one windturbine per one windturbine basis as they've done so far.

I'd rather see a total ban on new fossil-fired heating, industry and power systems, but the general idea is the same.

get serious about car energy consumption. No new cars with mpg below 50, full stop (hey, that should be good for high tech manufacturers - or are these only in France and Italy?)

How do we get people to buy them? The 78 mpg AudiA2 wasn't really a smash hit...

And some people actually do need heavy vehicles. So I'd much rather see another policy, a doubling of the tax on gasoline and diesel fuel.

get serious about priorities re train infrastructure vs roads.

In Sweden that would be "get serious about building (and maintaining!) infrastrucuture". We don't only need new and better rail, but also new and better roads, but most importantly the current systems need more maintenance. A single investment in maintenace of €10 billion should take care of that. (Like that's fortcoming...)

get serious about housing insulation. No new building without top notch standards, and a crash programme to refurbish older stock (hey, that should be good for business)

Not that important around here where no one heats with fossil fuel and the grid is fossil-free. Furthermore, there have been a couple of scandals lately in Sweden, where energy efficient housing practices that were deployed on a vast scale seems to cause rot, also that on a vast scale. Ooops.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 09:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How do we get people to buy them? The 78 mpg AudiA2 wasn't really a smash hit...

Well, youcan ban cars with worse MPG outright, or, if you're keen to let people free to pollute all they want, put a massive tax on cars with worse consumption: this should be done on a liters per 100km basis: put a 10,000 euro tax per liter/100km above 5 in a standardized test run by an independent body.)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 10:10:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not tax fuel instead of mileage? After all, a person who drives his 1 l/10 km SUV 1000 km pollutes just as much (or little) as someone who drives 2000 km with his 0,5 l/10 km compact car.

It's only reasonable if these pay the same amount of tax as they pollut the same.

I believe all special taxes on cars should be eliminated and replaced with taxes on the fuel.  

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 10:19:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is about giving an overwhelming incentive to car manufacturers to focus on fuel efficiency and not on other things like a 12th airbag, 50kg more of fancy electronics, a few seconds less on the 0-100kph run,etc.... Make your cars fuel efficient, or you will sell them only to a small minority. Full stop.

As to taxes, I'd be partisan to jack up fuel taxes by 50c/l (i.e. 2$/gal) every year AND giving back the same amount of money equally to each owner of a car. In France, it's easy, as you need a carte grise (id paper for your car) - just divvy up the expected tax income by the number of non-corporate owned cartes grises, et voilà.

People with smaller cars or fuel efficient cars or who drive little will get more money out of the trade; those with big cars or big amounts of driving will lose out even if they don't change behavior and all will be incentivised by the higher fuel prices to drive less.

And that would actually be mildy redistributive, I expect.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 11:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The British government taxes petrol. At one time they were putting up the tax by more than the rate of inflation, to discourage the growth of car use.

Then a group of disgruntled farmers and truckers began demonstrating and ever since the Labour government has been terrified of another fuel protest.

by Gary J on Mon Jul 9th, 2007 at 08:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Swedish center-right government just said they will raise taxes on gasoline and diesel. They also said it would be good if a litre of gas costed a little more than €2, but they promised they wouldn't raise taxes that much. For now.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Jul 9th, 2007 at 08:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Collect a carbon tax into an "Energy Pool".

The Energy Pool then makes interest-free loans to anyone who wants them (subject to due diligence on the projects or expenditure) and repayable to the Pool by:
(a) renewable energy projects - out of the energy production thereby financed;
(b) energy saving projects - by repaying their "energy debt" by paying the market price in respect of some of the energy they have saved.

Unlike $, £ and € financing, this energy financing has no "cost of money".

In truth, money has no "cost".

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 8th, 2007 at 10:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah. It tells the story of the painless-in-the-short-term alternatives.

Jerome, I can't help but see some irony here.

Aren't you the same person who appropriately and tirelessly denounces the neocon ideology of endless "reforms" as published in the pages of the Financial Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal and other outlets, this endless droning of "necessary pain" that, in the imagination of those plutocratic pukes, the populace must suffer through for the "benefit of the society at large" (and the very actual benefit of their rich patrons)?

:>

by Francois in Paris on Mon Jul 9th, 2007 at 01:09:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose the neolibs are happy to spend political capital (and the necessary PR) for 'reforms' that they really want, as opposed to for reforms that are actually necessary.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 9th, 2007 at 03:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was written mostly for the snark value but I'm always a bit troubled by the social engineering implicit to most of the energy/degrowth discourse.

But, heck, I have my own social agenda with nuclear power...

Just a thought.

by Francois in Paris on Tue Jul 10th, 2007 at 01:59:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Jerome thinks it can all be done with wind, he'd better give some figures to show how.  

Here's a back-of-envelope calculation

germany's current electricity consumption is 1.6  billion kWh/day  To cut CO2 emissions, you need to shift most transport to electrified rail (as Jerome advocates) and to plug-in electric road vehicles.  At a minimum, this will double electricity consumption to 3 billion kWh/day.  

Onshore wind is the only renewable source likely to make much contribution to this.  Wind farms have an average output of about 50,000 kWh/day per sq km.  So you'd need 60000 sq km of wind farms - one seventh of germany's land area - for average wind output to equal average consumption.   For peak capacity, you'd need far more than this, even with pumped storage and demand management.  Does anyone really think that allocating this much land to wind farms is feasible?

by paulm on Mon Jul 9th, 2007 at 11:38:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. you have to take into account offshore wind, because there's a lot of space on the continental shelf

  2. you have to note that each sq. km "used" by wind is not quite exclusively used by wind, and can continue to be used for other normal activities at the same time. Will people accept wind farms all over the place is untested, but it's not quite the same argument.

In any case, you won't find me saying that wind can solve all. I'm on record as being in the pro-nuclear camp, and expecting nuclear to be mostly necessary and useful. However, my point above was that a real policy of energy demand reduction, and relentless focus on renewable energies, has not yet been tried. So far, it's been a nice side business while the "real" business is still done by building more coal or gas or nuclear plants. Let's see how much we can get from such a policy, and then the gap will definitely need to be bridged by nuclear. As far as I' concerned, I'll be happy to do so; I just think that we should try to shrink the gap as much as possible before actually bridging it wxith nuclear.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 9th, 2007 at 03:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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