Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Total meltdown in the US housing/credit market. I think it's fair to say that has happened.

Not quite. The meltdown has just begun: there is a lot more melting to do yet.

Much higher oil prices. We're back in the $70-80 range, so while we have come a fair bit, we're not there yet.

Higher oil prices in dollars or lower dollar prices in oil?

There are two factors at play here: one is the ever increasing non-US demand for oil, and the other is the reluctance of oil sellers to KEEP the proceeds in dollars (the transaction currency is immaterial).

Higher interest rates. There's a fair chance rates will be lowered next year.

If dollar interest rates are lowered - which they will have to be - then the dollar's decline will continue to the extent that its role as global reserve currency will come under threat.

The Dollar is between a Rock and a Hard Place.


"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Aug 10th, 2007 at 11:46:51 AM EST
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