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I think this is a bit oversimplifying things.

France's comparative advantages are clearly not the same as Germany's, and where France has comparative advantages, a strong Euro is not a positive thing. It costs more to visit France, French agro-alimentary products cost more to export consumers, ditto viticulture, perfumes, et c.

And where Germany has advantages, a strong Euro is, generally speaking, not a negative thing. Heavy-duty trucks, machinery, medical equipment, high-end petro-chemicals and pistachio-infused bratwurst. Well, everythng but that last item.

A common social, fiscal and industrial policy would help; my point is precisely that Germany is pursuing, today, fiscal and industrial policies which do not perfectly serve French interests. But this ignores monetary policy, and this is important; the ECB is de facto pursuing a "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy, with member states hamstrung by the growth and stability pact re-inforcing the one-speed mechanism, and that monetary policy today is also more in line with German interests than it is with French interests. It is notable, for instance, that Sarkozy was not alone in criticizing ECB policy in the Presidential campaign - Royal was right there with him. And if the Germans aren't complaining, this could easily be because they have nothing to complain about...


The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 04:05:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it can be argued that the ECB's monetary policy over the last 5 years was a lot more adapted to France's economy than to Germany's, which would then have required lower rates (like Italy - while Spain, ireland and a couple others could clearly have benefitted from higher rates).

We seem to be making a lot of conclusions from the last 18 months of economic history, which are quite different from the previous 5 to 10 years.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 04:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could be, but I'm not so sure I would agree.

Certainly the tight-money Duisenberg years were not kinds to either France or Germany, though this is arguably because of Duisenberg's historical deference to the Buba and their tight money, strong currency bias (irrespective of whether this is good for Germany or not) which is probably why he was Germany's first choice for the post. Trichet has been better for France, but again, imho, this is relative, and certainly the strong Euro is not good for France like it is for Germany.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 05:39:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You remind me to ask a question probably nanne is best positioned to answer: as far as I know, the West German monetary bank philosophy was shared by the Dutch counterparts (not just Duisenberg). But I wonder about the logic behind it. At least from the nineties, the Netherlands is a very different economy from Germany's: due to the ports, it runs
trade deficits with the big production countries. So what is the (perceived) benefit?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 05:54:40 PM EST
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but I do know that calculating the trade deficits for the Netherlands is tricky because of the imports and exports in Rotterdam meant for the whole of the EU, but they get registered for the Netherlands.

Looking up some numbers at CBS, it seems the Netherlands have had a trade surplus since at least 1999, and is on the increase...

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 06:32:52 AM EST
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Having an independent central bank and a stable currency is about more than short term economic benefits and losses, and definitely about more than imports and exports. The perceived benefits are mainly lower inflation and more budgetary discipline, and, if the role of the bank is chiefly to limit inflation and not to stimulate the economy, fewer bubbles.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 06:52:23 AM EST
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Here I reveal that I am ambiguous about which is the best monetary policy for the poor. I lived through a period of high inflation, and a few more inflation hikes, and they definitely hurt the poor more -- especially retired working-class people or people just before retirement, who saw their life-long savings evaporate. (The generation that did the post-war reconstruction became the biggest loser.) There is also the trend that if fiscal indiscipline leads to runaway budget deficits, cutbacks will again hit the poor (this cycle just played out here in the last five years). These issues are opposed by the general tendency of central bankers to advocate policies that brake employee wage increase but not employer enrichment, and as redstar says, rail against unions.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 09:07:14 AM EST
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Techno's diary, mentioned earlier in this thread by Pierre (link) also made me think a bit more about this. I guess a central bank solely focussed on combatting inflation is not always a good idea under all circumstances (e.g. circumstances under which politicians follow an otherwise irresponsible fiscal policy).

Now techno offers several ways to think about money, which are interesting. I think about money mostly as an institution. For the everyday person it is best if this institution is stable, for several reasons (transparancy on the market, ability to plan finances over a longer horizon, cost and risk of engaging in various kinds of transactions). This is especially true for a new currency like the euro, which people have to get used to.

Although I think that the policy to keep the euro strong and stable is generally a good one, I do not necessarily agree with every statement by Duisenberg and Trichet, of course. I do think that wage increases should not structurally go above increases in productivity, as they do in Spain -- definitely not in Germany. On the other hand, central bankers should of course speak out more against the unhealthy wealth capture by the have-mores, which they don't.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 08:27:42 AM EST
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Yes, but having a central bank under political control is an aim both of the left and the right in France, whereas the right and I think also the social democrats in Germany oppose it.

Now, how would the ECB not have a one size fits all policy? How could you differentiate interest rates within a single currency?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 07:12:33 AM EST
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By putting severe restrictions on the free movement of capital to block arbitrage. Such restrictions were in place just a few decades ago throughout Europe, still are in place in many emerging countries. So there is no fundamental reason that prevents such restrictions. At the time, they were rather counter-productive because they were unilaterally decided by each country with short-sighted fiscal and political aims.

A uniform non-arbitrage taxation on capital flows between regions and business sectors (similar in implementation to the Tobin tax: add an extra spread by means of tax, to loan payments by one sector/region to a party in a more favored sector), agreed at EC level could enable preferential rates to underdeveloped areas, or eco/ethical businesses while controlling bubbles elsewhere, as was suggested in a previous diary by techno. It would eliminate the potential for "asymmetric shock" that was studied and dismissed before the EMU.

Pierre

by Pierre on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 07:51:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Capital should be heavily taxed when it crosses a border. A simple flat tax might be okay.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 07:55:29 AM EST
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I don't agree on the "heavily", nor on the "flat". I don't think all capital is evil, and practical implementation considerations call for a step-by-step surgical approach (if only to avoid toppling over a few areas with structural imbalances due to demographics and savings culture).

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 08:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some might say this surgical approach is prone to political "manipulation," with politicians fiddling with rates and regional variances. Although imho all Capital allocations are political, it's just a matter of who has effective control over the political decision to allocate, and to what degree. And measures to increase the degree to which representatives of the people (as opposed to oligarchs) have control over this process is a good thing.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 10:07:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some might say this surgical approach is prone to political "manipulation,"

What is not ? (prone to manipulation)

Current trend of financial and trade globalization is also a manipulation affair, with lobbies keeping a lid on some business sectors, or wiping some others. And it was largely unchecked by populations (although westerners somewhat voted "yes" with their wallets, buying invariably the imported crapware).

In any case, the devil is in the details, and having public control of the details falls back to command economies, which do not compete very well with others in expansive eras. Of course, a command economy will be better off if the current system self-organizes into a catastrophic failure.

Pierre

by Pierre on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 10:19:10 AM EST
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I would rate this comment a 5 if I could.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 10:46:49 AM EST
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To Pierre's comment I would also add that beyond levers of monetary policy one can influence via fiscal levers. Unfortunately, these fiscal levers, once available to EU member states, have been largely stripped of them by the Growth and Stability Pact as well as numerous EU directives related to tax harmonization, convergence of market regulation and so forth, with no satisfatory set of EU-wide, federal and (at least eventually) transparent, democratic mechanisms to take their place.

Lest anyone gather from this that I'd advocate going back to the days when Italy's finance ministry printed money to pay for government program and that France run a 6% of GDP deficit,  this is not at all the case. In fact, the GSP doesn't go far enough - why can't member states run balanced budgets? But we cannot expect this to be economically effective if no EU-wide institutions assume the role of economic growth and development oversight and promotion that sovereign member-state governments once assumed.

To give an idea, I was trying to get at this in the first diary I ever posted here, essentially the same inter-regional economic levers employed by FDR back when government actually worked in the United States (citing Galbraith et al):

The relevant rigidities are to be found in the thinking of Europe's central authorities on two  levels. First, these authorities are unable, or unwilling, to foster the development of macro-economic policies that  can effectively build Europe's peripheral economies through national programmes of full employment--and that, indeed, once did so in the heyday of national Keynesianism from 1945 to 1970. Second, they have been unwilling to make the vast income transfers, across national lines, that would be required to make rural or service sector or even civil-service life in Spain as attractive as it is in Sweden.

In fact, present European policy is designed to work in just the opposite direction. Through monetary union and the Maastricht treaty, Europe has moved to restrict the autonomy of both monetary and fiscal policies and to impede the achievement of full employment on the national scale. Meanwhile, barriers to migration and resettlement obstruct the citizens of the European periphery from taking full advantage of the more generous social welfare systems to their north.

Anyhow, I understand that enlargement has made this even more politically tricky, as predictably certain elements throughout Europe are even more averse to income transfers to poor Romania and Bulgaria than they were to income transfers to Ireland and Spain in previous decades. And in fact, I believe this is precisely why the English and the Americans, push so hard for enlargement - they baldly want the project of an effective and proserous federal Europe, one of shared sovereignty, to fail.

And, as an aside, the fact that the most effective proponents of the Europe I think we can and should be have been (to my mind overly, but no matter) conservative social democrats like Delors or Prodi tempers my naturally more leftish tendancies, if for no other reason than pragmatism.

This being said, EU-wide institutions do not grow to take the place of the fundamental role that member-state finance ministries played in guiding and spurring economic growth and development, something will have to give.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 10:41:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 11:26:49 AM EST
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