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France's comparative advantages are clearly not the same as Germany's, and where France has comparative advantages, a strong Euro is not a positive thing. It costs more to visit France, French agro-alimentary products cost more to export consumers, ditto viticulture, perfumes, et c.
And where Germany has advantages, a strong Euro is, generally speaking, not a negative thing. Heavy-duty trucks, machinery, medical equipment, high-end petro-chemicals and pistachio-infused bratwurst. Well, everythng but that last item.
A common social, fiscal and industrial policy would help; my point is precisely that Germany is pursuing, today, fiscal and industrial policies which do not perfectly serve French interests. But this ignores monetary policy, and this is important; the ECB is de facto pursuing a "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy, with member states hamstrung by the growth and stability pact re-inforcing the one-speed mechanism, and that monetary policy today is also more in line with German interests than it is with French interests. It is notable, for instance, that Sarkozy was not alone in criticizing ECB policy in the Presidential campaign - Royal was right there with him. And if the Germans aren't complaining, this could easily be because they have nothing to complain about... The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
We seem to be making a lot of conclusions from the last 18 months of economic history, which are quite different from the previous 5 to 10 years. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Certainly the tight-money Duisenberg years were not kinds to either France or Germany, though this is arguably because of Duisenberg's historical deference to the Buba and their tight money, strong currency bias (irrespective of whether this is good for Germany or not) which is probably why he was Germany's first choice for the post. Trichet has been better for France, but again, imho, this is relative, and certainly the strong Euro is not good for France like it is for Germany. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
Looking up some numbers at CBS, it seems the Netherlands have had a trade surplus since at least 1999, and is on the increase...
Now techno offers several ways to think about money, which are interesting. I think about money mostly as an institution. For the everyday person it is best if this institution is stable, for several reasons (transparancy on the market, ability to plan finances over a longer horizon, cost and risk of engaging in various kinds of transactions). This is especially true for a new currency like the euro, which people have to get used to.
Although I think that the policy to keep the euro strong and stable is generally a good one, I do not necessarily agree with every statement by Duisenberg and Trichet, of course. I do think that wage increases should not structurally go above increases in productivity, as they do in Spain -- definitely not in Germany. On the other hand, central bankers should of course speak out more against the unhealthy wealth capture by the have-mores, which they don't.
Now, how would the ECB not have a one size fits all policy? How could you differentiate interest rates within a single currency?
A uniform non-arbitrage taxation on capital flows between regions and business sectors (similar in implementation to the Tobin tax: add an extra spread by means of tax, to loan payments by one sector/region to a party in a more favored sector), agreed at EC level could enable preferential rates to underdeveloped areas, or eco/ethical businesses while controlling bubbles elsewhere, as was suggested in a previous diary by techno. It would eliminate the potential for "asymmetric shock" that was studied and dismissed before the EMU. Pierre
Some might say this surgical approach is prone to political "manipulation,"
What is not ? (prone to manipulation)
Current trend of financial and trade globalization is also a manipulation affair, with lobbies keeping a lid on some business sectors, or wiping some others. And it was largely unchecked by populations (although westerners somewhat voted "yes" with their wallets, buying invariably the imported crapware).
In any case, the devil is in the details, and having public control of the details falls back to command economies, which do not compete very well with others in expansive eras. Of course, a command economy will be better off if the current system self-organizes into a catastrophic failure. Pierre
Lest anyone gather from this that I'd advocate going back to the days when Italy's finance ministry printed money to pay for government program and that France run a 6% of GDP deficit, this is not at all the case. In fact, the GSP doesn't go far enough - why can't member states run balanced budgets? But we cannot expect this to be economically effective if no EU-wide institutions assume the role of economic growth and development oversight and promotion that sovereign member-state governments once assumed.
To give an idea, I was trying to get at this in the first diary I ever posted here, essentially the same inter-regional economic levers employed by FDR back when government actually worked in the United States (citing Galbraith et al):
The relevant rigidities are to be found in the thinking of Europe's central authorities on two levels. First, these authorities are unable, or unwilling, to foster the development of macro-economic policies that can effectively build Europe's peripheral economies through national programmes of full employment--and that, indeed, once did so in the heyday of national Keynesianism from 1945 to 1970. Second, they have been unwilling to make the vast income transfers, across national lines, that would be required to make rural or service sector or even civil-service life in Spain as attractive as it is in Sweden. In fact, present European policy is designed to work in just the opposite direction. Through monetary union and the Maastricht treaty, Europe has moved to restrict the autonomy of both monetary and fiscal policies and to impede the achievement of full employment on the national scale. Meanwhile, barriers to migration and resettlement obstruct the citizens of the European periphery from taking full advantage of the more generous social welfare systems to their north.
In fact, present European policy is designed to work in just the opposite direction. Through monetary union and the Maastricht treaty, Europe has moved to restrict the autonomy of both monetary and fiscal policies and to impede the achievement of full employment on the national scale. Meanwhile, barriers to migration and resettlement obstruct the citizens of the European periphery from taking full advantage of the more generous social welfare systems to their north.
Anyhow, I understand that enlargement has made this even more politically tricky, as predictably certain elements throughout Europe are even more averse to income transfers to poor Romania and Bulgaria than they were to income transfers to Ireland and Spain in previous decades. And in fact, I believe this is precisely why the English and the Americans, push so hard for enlargement - they baldly want the project of an effective and proserous federal Europe, one of shared sovereignty, to fail.
And, as an aside, the fact that the most effective proponents of the Europe I think we can and should be have been (to my mind overly, but no matter) conservative social democrats like Delors or Prodi tempers my naturally more leftish tendancies, if for no other reason than pragmatism.
This being said, EU-wide institutions do not grow to take the place of the fundamental role that member-state finance ministries played in guiding and spurring economic growth and development, something will have to give. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
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