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I felt curious about how close ND was to majority, so I used this:

The electoral law this year provides proportional assignment of 260 seats among all parties collecting over 3% of the vote, but gives a bonus of 40 seats to the party collecting most votes nationwide.

and a rough mean of initial exit polls:
ND 41
PASOK 38
KKE 8
SYRIZA 5.5
LAOS 3.5
(adds up to 96, i.e. 4% others)

to create this seat distribution (percentage/0,96*260)

ND 111 + 40
PASOK 103
KKE 22
SYRIZA 15
LAOS 9

so it does look very even. Now I am sure the greek election system has more quirks then this (seat distribution formulas and so on), but I guess it will be an interesting night.

If ND fails to gain majority (ends at 149 or something), what is then the expected result? ND minority rule? ND+LAOS coalition? Great coalition? New elections?

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 03:11:30 PM EST
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It meant that it looks close too even odds that ND gets a majority of the seats. The construction with +40 for largest party makes sure that it is not even between ND and someone else.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 05:17:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well they got the majority, a narrow majority of just 152 / 300, but a majority still.

The final results were a cause of satisfaction for the conservatives (you don't get to sit idle while the country burns and get re-elected that often), as well as for the left and the far-right, in fact for everyone but the socialists, which probably set a new world record in speed of challenging a losing leader, when Evangelos Venizelos, a PASOK big-shot who has been setting himself up as the alternative to George Papandreou, gave a press conference 15 minutes after Papandreou made his concession speech, in which he made clear his intent to run for the party leadership as soon as possible.

Given that the conservatives were promising "deep reforms" (which means what it usually means around the world these days) I seriously doubt that he can muster enough support to pass anything of consequence.

The emergence of LAOS is a problem and possibly dangerous (because as I ponted out they are not posing publically as extreme rightists at all). I note that Lepen's "representative in Greece" got elected as did the son of the leader of a neo-fascist group: his father didn't manage to storm the parliament, so this guy decided to enter it...

The next few weeks will be interesting to watch, anyway...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 11:33:22 PM EST
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Venizelos is an excellent choice if only for his unbeatable communication skills. He can do no worse than George who's all smoke and no fire.

You failed to mention that the ND majority was achieved thru another 'cut to measure' electoral law that robs others of seats.

IMO opinion, anything below 45% should not give any party absolute control.

Glad KKE and the other Leftists did well. Say what you may of the old school communists but at least they are true to their beliefs, fighting more for worker's rights (currently under attack) than an ideological battle.

Not so alarmed with the Fascist %. The best way to beat them is to know who they are. They will rise and fall because now, they won't be able to hide and fool people.

by Euroliberal on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 08:49:33 AM EST
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