Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
The initial (at 75% of the total sample)exit polls are as follows:


ND 41-43
PASOK 36-38
KKE 7,5-9,5
LAOS 3,5 - 4,5

ND 42,2 +-1
PASOK 38,5 +
- 1
KKE 7,5 +- 0.5
- 0.5
LAOS 3.5 +- 0.5

ND 41,9 +
- 1
PASOK 38,4 +- 1
KKE 7,7 +
- 0.5
SYRIZA 5.3 +- 0.5
- 0.5
Others ~3

ND 40,2 - 42,8
PASOK 36,5 - 39,1
KKE 7.5 - 8.9
SYRIZA 4.8 - 6
LAOS 3.2 - 4.2

This is a first sample: both big parties lost big, ND probably but not certainly has a parliamentary majority, the left is probably achieving (even surpassing its 1989 high mark. Laos is in the parliament almost certainly.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 12:16:06 PM EST
I felt curious about how close ND was to majority, so I used this:

The electoral law this year provides proportional assignment of 260 seats among all parties collecting over 3% of the vote, but gives a bonus of 40 seats to the party collecting most votes nationwide.

and a rough mean of initial exit polls:
ND 41
LAOS 3.5
(adds up to 96, i.e. 4% others)

to create this seat distribution (percentage/0,96*260)

ND 111 + 40
KKE 22

so it does look very even. Now I am sure the greek election system has more quirks then this (seat distribution formulas and so on), but I guess it will be an interesting night.

If ND fails to gain majority (ends at 149 or something), what is then the expected result? ND minority rule? ND+LAOS coalition? Great coalition? New elections?

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 03:11:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It meant that it looks close too even odds that ND gets a majority of the seats. The construction with +40 for largest party makes sure that it is not even between ND and someone else.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 05:17:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well they got the majority, a narrow majority of just 152 / 300, but a majority still.

The final results were a cause of satisfaction for the conservatives (you don't get to sit idle while the country burns and get re-elected that often), as well as for the left and the far-right, in fact for everyone but the socialists, which probably set a new world record in speed of challenging a losing leader, when Evangelos Venizelos, a PASOK big-shot who has been setting himself up as the alternative to George Papandreou, gave a press conference 15 minutes after Papandreou made his concession speech, in which he made clear his intent to run for the party leadership as soon as possible.

Given that the conservatives were promising "deep reforms" (which means what it usually means around the world these days) I seriously doubt that he can muster enough support to pass anything of consequence.

The emergence of LAOS is a problem and possibly dangerous (because as I ponted out they are not posing publically as extreme rightists at all). I note that Lepen's "representative in Greece" got elected as did the son of the leader of a neo-fascist group: his father didn't manage to storm the parliament, so this guy decided to enter it...

The next few weeks will be interesting to watch, anyway...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 11:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Venizelos is an excellent choice if only for his unbeatable communication skills. He can do no worse than George who's all smoke and no fire.

You failed to mention that the ND majority was achieved thru another 'cut to measure' electoral law that robs others of seats.

IMO opinion, anything below 45% should not give any party absolute control.

Glad KKE and the other Leftists did well. Say what you may of the old school communists but at least they are true to their beliefs, fighting more for worker's rights (currently under attack) than an ideological battle.

Not so alarmed with the Fascist %. The best way to beat them is to know who they are. They will rise and fall because now, they won't be able to hide and fool people.

by Euroliberal on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 08:49:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greek elections show mounting discontent, a victory for Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
by Laura Petricola, People's Weekly World Newspaper, 09/20/07

ATHENS, Greece -- The Sept. 16 parliamentary elections here handed the conservative New Democracy Party a 4-percentage-point re-election victory over the liberal opposition PASOK party.

New Democracy won 42 percent of the vote and PASOK got 38 percent. Greece's "unreconstructed" communist party, the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) won 8.2 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over 2004, and Siriza, a left-wing coalition party, got 5 percent of the national vote.

LAOS, a populist, religious-oriented right-wing party, got into Parliament for the first time with 3.8 percent.

Only 74 percent of the nearly 1 million registered voters cast ballots. The lower turnout reflects a steadily increasing trend towards abstention by Greek voters, which polls have linked to disillusionment with the two-party system.

The KKE nearly doubled the number of deputies it will have in Parliament, to 22. In large city centers, the vote for the KKE was 10-12 percent, reaching as high as 18-19 percent in some working-class neighborhoods. The KKE vote was highest among working people in the private sector and among youth, the unemployed, the self-employed and small farmers.

In the countryside, in villages that put up strong resistance to the Nazi occupation during World War II, the Communist vote was particularly impressive. Along the same lines, islands that were used to exile Communists by the postwar, right-wing dictatorship also posted high vote tallies for the KKE. The former exile island of Ikaria (Dodecanese), for example, handed the KKE a first place showing with 36 percent of the vote.

The election results represent a victory for KKE, which has been slowly but steadily increasing its political power in the post-1991 era, having doubled its percentage of the vote since that time. The party said its vote tally reflects support for the actions and struggles it has led over a period of years, combined with a widening radicalism in Greece, with many voters casting a ballot for the KKE for the first time.

While the ruling-class parties, New Democracy and PASOK, still command the lion's share of the electorate's support, they lost significant votes to KKE and to the other alternative parties.

Young voters particularly, age 18-24, turned their backs on the two-party system. This reflects the shift in voter consciousness, as working people increasingly turn away from center-right and center-left positions.

Both New Democracy and PASOK push the neoliberal agenda of "free trade" and privatization that is dictated by the European Union. These policies are steadily forcing the vast majority of working families here into economic ruin and, as one KKE election poster warned, the worst may be yet to come.

The incumbent New Democracy Party also came under criticism during the election for its mishandling of the fight against widespread wildfires last month.

What is clear is that the high vote for the two dominant parties does not correspond to the level of strong popular discontent.

As a result, the KKE calls for "organized and intensive action in cooperation with radical forces that are developing to build a strong popular front against the anti-people measures New Democracy will promote."

It said that through mass action, "forces that are still entrapped in the two-party logic" can be won to more left-wing positions.


Other sources:
Site of KKE
http://inter.kke.gr/                            english
http://www.kke.gr/kke_ru.html            russian
http://fr.kke.gr/                                french

Daily newspaper of KKE

by belogianni on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 07:27:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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