ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz | 151 comments (151 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

On why I think that large cities could become unsustainable.

Large cities are a more efficient (smaller ecological footprint) settlement structure -- provided that

there is cheap transport of resources, above all agricultural products;
there is efficient organisation that is stable (be it a government or the anarchists' self-organizing).

Now if (a) oil becomes scarce, (b) transport as now structured will become more expensive, (c) the current petrochemical industrial agriculture will collapse, leading to food scarcity. (It doesn't matter whether 5% or 50% short of demand.)

A further consequence of (b) would be a reduction in organisation efficiency and stability. Further consequences of (a) (and (c)) would be an effort by those with power to secure the scarce resources for themselves. This on one hand could mean government rationing while the military is kept well supplied. On the other hand: robbery. Robbery, both for fuel and food, and suppliers evaluating the risk of robbery, would further limit food transport from afar into cities.

In short, I think citydwellers would be compelled to move closer to the sources of food. Even if the new, more rural settlement structure is able to feed less, even if bands of robbers roam the countryside. (They'd roam the cities, too.)

I think prior collapses of civilisations, most notably that of the (Western) Roman Empire and the Classic Maya (Tikal vs. Calacmul) give an example. But there is also a more recent occurence that I think is comparable. Look at this photo:

This is a Hamsterzug (="hamster train"), leaving Hamburg main station in 1946. Whence the name?

At the end of WWII, in Europe's bombed-out cities, urban food scarcity became a reality. What remained of transport infrastructure capacity was mostly used by the military. The nodes of the processing/distribution network were damaged, too, including slaughterhouses, mills, and shops themselves. There was widespread robbery, too.

So the lucky could temporarily move in with rural relatives (as some of my ancestors did). The less lucky travelled to the countryside and tried to 'buy' food from the peasants by giving them their valuables. But if nothing remained for sale, one thing remained: going into the woods to hunt for -- hamsters.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:04:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (4.00 / 2)

a) European food production could probably drop 50% without food shortages given the way we waste food.

b) You're confusing short-term dislocations with sustainability.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:11:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

a) That's could, what about would? I think the time to organise less wasteful food usage is now, not when petro-shortage happens, then it's too late.

b) Why do you think that the future scenario I described is short-term dislocation? What happened in post-war Europe was short-term dislocation, because its causes were temporary (and local on a global scale), the causes of scarcity could be addressed. I don't think that applies to this future.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:26:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Oil isn't likely to become scarce overnight. Realistically, you're talking at least a five to ten year period of rapidly rising prices, which is long enough for mechanisms like rationing and biofuels to eke out supplies along with crash programmes to move away from petro-chemical based argiculture. It wont' be pretty, but it won't be the aftermath of WW2 either.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Unless there is a catastrophic crop failure or something like that.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 09:47:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (4.00 / 2)

Actually, GW could bring us catastrophic crop failures even (or even more yet !) with rising oil supplies. We are basically seeing it now in Australia, Ukraine, Russia, France: all are at least -25% below expectations, if not more. And the first 3 in my list are talking of closing exports, of course.

Catastrophic crops will kill hundreds of millions in the next few years, but western countries will not come up with a grain-equivalent of the IEA strategic reserves until there is a bad price-rationing in a developed nation. I expect this could occur soon at the US agribusiness level of the supply chain, if we get the same crops for a few more years, keep on the biofuel craze, and the eastern block cuts its exports to keep a lid on domestic prices. Given the job and money weight of US agribusiness, hopefully they will shout out loud enough.

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:02:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

western countries will not come up with a grain-equivalent of the IEA strategic reserv

Have all the invention stores under the CAP been done away with?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:07:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

I heard that we are down to just a few weeks of worldwide supply on all the major grains. I dunno if Europe fares much better. Also, increased consumption in processed food played a part. But essentially yes, the EC always considered the surpluses to be a liability that cost them a lot to keep domestic markets afloat and then they had to give away (and ship !) to starving Africans, whenever the wharehouses were overflowing. As prices went up, the need for subsidy-purchases disappeared, and probably they even thought they were wisely managing taxpayer money when selling remaining stocks at a profit...

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:38:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

The fact that so many countries (including Ukraine "the breadbasket of Europe") are considering grain export constraints is very worrying, but I was thinking more along the lines of

Monbiot.com: Goodbye, Kind World

We now know, for example, that the Himalayan glaciers which feed the Ganges, the Bramaputra, the Mekong, the Yangtze and the other great Asian rivers are likely to disappear within 40 years. If these rivers dry up during the irrigation season, then the rice production which currently feeds over one third of humanity collapses, and the world goes into net food deficit.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 03:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Well actually, the voting system only allowed me one vote. But it should be made more flexible: I do believe in the die off for about half of humanity. This is the reason I don't do international charity: I've more or less written off half of humanity. Helping them through present hardship will only allow them to live a miserable life a bit longer until new hardship comes, for which no fat rich westerner will make a check (cos' he'll be in a serious diet himself).

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 04:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

That is a grim prospect, and I have to say I don't have a reason to doubt you're right.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 04:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

And I'm a Doomer? ;-)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

You can add China to your list:

[Edited from China Daily

By August 1, 110 million hectares of arable land had been hit by drought, nearly 2 million hectares more than in previous years, according to the latest statistics from the Office of the State Flood Control and Draught Relief Headquarters.
Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, Hunan, and Jilin provinces, and the autonomous regions of the Inner Mongolia and Guangxi Zhuang are the worst hit.
About one-third of arable land in the provinces of Jiangxi, Heilongjiang and Hunan have been affected.
The drought "poses a grave threat" to the autumn harvest Sun said during an inspection tour in Jiangxi yesterday.
Jiangxi is experiencing a drought that is estimated to occur only once in 50 years, with 866,000 hectares of crops affected.
Sun said the drought-stricken regions were the key grain production bases in China.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 09:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

ou're talking at least a five to ten year period of rapidly rising prices

Was thinking in the same timeframe.

long enough for mechanisms like rationing and biofuels to eke out supplies along with crash programmes to move away from petro-chemical based argiculture.

That again sounds more like could than would (with the exception of biofuels, for which afew et al calculated a very low potential). If the process takes five to ten years, I'd 'count' on leaders to abandon any idea of a crash programme at the first sign of a recession, and keep to it for too long.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

I think prior collapses of civilisations, most notably that of the (Western) Roman Empire and the Classic Maya (Tikal vs. Calacmul) give an example. But there is also a more recent occurence that I think is comparable. Look at this photo:

We discussed this before. The populat perception of the end of the Western Roman Empire is coloured by the influence of British historians and the fact that in the British Isles urban civilisation went away with the Roman Legions. In Hispania, the very romanized Visigoths simply took over the Roman provinces. So your mileage may vary.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:14:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

I don't know about Hispania, but in France or Italy, the Roman cities shrunk dramatically (including Rome itself), and most were abandoned more to the North. The Germanic kingdoms didn't have the organisation of their predecessors.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:19:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Trans-Alpine Gaul would seem to naturally be a halfway position between the Britons and Iberia.

Roman cities were, of course, plumped up by the material inflows of Empire ... the receding of the Empire to the Eastern Med would naturally result in a reduced size.

Oddly enough, though, since the US imperial system was constructed in the aftermath of WWII, where the concern was not in gaining new wealth but in ensuring demand for existing productive capacity, including capacity to produce new plant and equipment, we would be enriched by the direct effect of losing the base network underpinning our imperial system.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 05:59:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

Trans-Alpine Gaul would seem to naturally be a halfway position between the Britons and Iberia.

Think of the very heart of the Empire, too. A city falling from one million inhabitants to 20,000.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 06:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Yes, with the Roman cities proper specializing in living off the Empire, the collapse of the Empire in the Western Med hit Roman Italy hard.

Iberia was rather being lived off of, that's why I put Trans-Alpine Gaul halfway between the Britons and Iberia rather than halfway between the Britons and Italy ... as a matter of social as well as physical geography.

But I certainly aint no ancient historian.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 06:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

I found this:

Tarraconesis (Hispania)

By the end of the third century after Christ, the emperor Diocletian made the final reorganization of Spain under Roman rule. He divided the province of Tarraconensis into three additional provinces: Cartaginensis, Gallaetia, and Tarraconensis. During this period trade began to decline. The gold and silver had been drained from the eastern coast, and the government responded by attempting to regulate wages and prices. Individuals were deprived of the freedom of movement and the right to change their occupations.

...but couldn't find any figures for Hispanian city populations after the fall of the Roman Empire (looked specifically for Tarragona/Tarraco and Barcelona/Barcino)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 07:07:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (4.00 / 4)

You sound like a hardcore Doomer. There's no way it could get that bad so quickly after peak oil. True, most petroleum use is in transport, but only a tiny fraction of all transport is foodstuff. And this would get priority over personal transport and fancy consumer goods. Only a century after peak oil would we have so little of the stuff left that we couldn't ship grain and flour into the cities of Europe. And by then, if we still haven't found a substitute, then surely we don't deserve to live on.

It's the same with the industrial-agriculture-is-doomed meme. Pesticides are a tiny volume of petrochemistry. They could be made with other inputs of CHON. Diesel for industrial machinery is again a tiny amount of total consumption. could already be replaced by diester without going mad about biofuel acreage (waste products are enough). The only true problem is natural gas used to make fertilizers (and not petroleum). It's several percent of all NatGas use, and if Peak Gas is a total cliff as expected, then it could bite into those few percents. But since what is needed is actually hydrogen, not natgas, we could still find substitutes, we have decades (like electrolysis from renewables of pyrocracking using solar heat).

Granted, phosphorus is a harder problem, but it is a bit less urgent than peak oil and gas. And I expect when peak oil hits the mainstream (that is, 20 years after it has happened and there is no concealing it anymore), it will change a lot in the way governments are held accountable to the management of these resources. So we are not entirely doomed as a specie. The biggest impacts will be socio-economic, and dense fuel-efficient cities are actually a way to mitigate this.

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:54:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

RE Peak Oil and Die Off ... (none / 1)

No going to argue that I agree, but it is easy to postulate mass die off in face of Peak Oil ... check www.dieoff.org, for example.

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:32:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OTOH, only a fraction of the oil ... (none / 0)

... used in oil-fed agriculture is consumed in transporting the finished product. There is oil consumed in producing the fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides, oil consumed in breaking the ground for planting, sowing, and harvest.

Of course, for drying after the harvest its more likely to be natural gas.

About the only time our current agricultural system doesn't use oil is when the farmer is in the house in the evening, consuming coal or natural gas fired electricity.

Indeed, for all of the hoo hah about ethanol driving up corn prices, I saw a claim floating around cyberspace that the major factor driving up corn prices were oil price spikes.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 05:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

IIRC, Hughes "Networks of Power" attributes the development of huge sources for electricity - hydro in USA and coal in Germany - during WWI to the need for synthetic fertilizers.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 07:02:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

crushed rock would be a good start (none / 0)

http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/4710219-claims.html

1. A method for producing a combined phosphate fertilizer and soil conditioner without employing a mineral acid, which consists essentially of the steps of:
(a) grinding a moist, acidic, organic waste material having a pH less than 5, a water content of at least 40% and lower calcium and phosphorous contents than the calcium and phosphorous contents of phosphate rock;
(b) heating the acidic, organic waste material ground during step (a) to a temperature of 40° to 120° C. and at a pressure of 16 to 22 bar;
(c) grinding phosphate rock to a particle size of 0.02 to 1 mm;
(d) heating the phosphate rock ground during step (c) to a temperature of 50 to 800° C.;
(e) combining the ground, acidic, organic waste material obtained during step (b) as the sole acidic reactant with the ground phosphate rock obtained during step (d) at a pressure of 20 to 55 bar to permit the ground, acidic, organic waste material and the ground phosphate rock to collide, to cause disintegration of the phosphate rock; and
(f) cooling the mixture obtained during step (e) to 20° to 40° C. to obtain the desired product which contains almost all nutrient elements of phosphate rock.

A method for producing combined phophorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the organic reactant is bark waste.

A method for producing combined phophorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the organic reactant is peat or peat mud.

A method for producing combined phosphorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the organic reactant is waste fibre from a cellulose production plant.

A method for producing combined phosohorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the organic reactant is sawdust.

A method for producing combined phosphorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the organic reactant is the solid component of communal sewage.

A method for producing combined phosphorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the amount of water-soluble phosphorus in the fertilizer is regulated by the pH of the reagent mass.

A method for producing combined phosphorous fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the amount of water-soluble phosphorus in the fertilizer is regulated by calcium and phosphorus content of the reagent mass.

A method for producing combined phosphorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1 which the amount of water-soluble phosphorus in the fertilizer is regulated by the reaction temperature.

A method for producing combined phosphorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the amount of water-soluble phosphorus in the fertilizer is regulated by the duration of the reaction.

A method for producing combined phosphorus fertilizer and soil conditioner according to claim 1, in which the amount of water-soluble phosphorus in the fertilizer is regulated by the weight ratio of the fresh organic mass and the dry phosphate rock.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 03:35:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: crushed rock would be a good start (none / 1)

There you go ... Claim 6 goes along with the towns and cities populated at urban densities.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 06:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

no way it could get that bad so quickly after peak oil

I didn't specify a timeline, so I don't understand why both you and Colman thought of "quickly". I am thinking of decades for the whole process.

only a tiny fraction of all transport is foodstuff. And this would get priority

Why do you think so? I am not at all certain. It could get priority after government gets priority, which only means that pressures will be stronger elsewhere. (A hefty recession after the creduction of production capacity in major industries, but this time permanent unlike in the thirties, wouldn't be pretty.)

Pesticides are a tiny volume of petrochemistry... Diesel for industrial machinery is again a tiny amount of total consumption.

It's not the amount that matters most. You forget about costs rising strongly for farmers. Couple that with the lending market one could expect.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:57:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Thank you ... never knew of 'hamster trains' ...

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

sorry DoDo, but to hamster actually means to gather, like Hamsters do before they hibernate. Surely people will also have eaten Hamsters, but the word and its usage is older than the 2nd world war.

hamster in etymologischem Woerterbuch

by PeWi on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 06:41:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Westfälisches Eisenbahnmuseum Münster - Wikipedia

Zusammen mit einem original restaurierten preußischen Abteilwagen des Jahres 1927 werden regelmäßig sogenannte ,,Hamsterfahrten" nach Enniger zum inzwischen zu einer Kneipe umgebauten Bahnhof Pängel Anton unternommen. Der Begriff ,,Hamsterfahrt" bzw. ,,Hamsterzug" erinnert dabei an die ersten Nachkriegsjahre des Zweiten Weltkriegs, als die Städter regelmäßig mit dem Zug ins Umland fuhren, um sich mit Lebensmitteln einzudecken.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 12:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (4.00 / 2)

yes, but the point is, that they got food mainly in exchange for something. They did not go to find Hamsters, but to illegally trade.

by PeWi on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (4.00 / 2)

D'oh! Didn't knew it. But I swear I did read of hunting for hamsters...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz | 151 comments (151 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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