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Oil isn't likely to become scarce overnight. Realistically, you're talking at least a five to ten year period of rapidly rising prices, which is long enough for mechanisms like rationing and biofuels to eke out supplies along with crash programmes to move away from petro-chemical based argiculture. It wont' be pretty, but it won't be the aftermath of WW2 either.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 08:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless there is a catastrophic crop failure or something like that.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 09:47:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, GW could bring us catastrophic crop failures even (or even more yet !) with rising oil supplies. We are basically seeing it now in Australia, Ukraine, Russia, France: all are at least -25% below expectations, if not more. And the first 3 in my list are talking of closing exports, of course.

Catastrophic crops will kill hundreds of millions in the next few years, but western countries will not come up with a grain-equivalent of the IEA strategic reserves until there is a bad price-rationing in a developed nation. I expect this could occur soon at the US agribusiness level of the supply chain, if we get the same crops for a few more years, keep on the biofuel craze, and the eastern block cuts its exports to keep a lid on domestic prices. Given the job and money weight of US agribusiness, hopefully they will shout out loud enough.

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:02:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
western countries will not come up with a grain-equivalent of the IEA strategic reserv

Have all the invention stores under the CAP been done away with?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:07:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I heard that we are down to just a few weeks of worldwide supply on all the major grains. I dunno if Europe fares much better. Also, increased consumption in processed food played a part. But essentially yes, the EC always considered the surpluses to be a liability that cost them a lot to keep domestic markets afloat and then they had to give away (and ship !) to starving Africans, whenever the wharehouses were overflowing. As prices went up, the need for subsidy-purchases disappeared, and probably they even thought they were wisely managing taxpayer money when selling remaining stocks at a profit...

Pierre
by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:38:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The fact that so many countries (including Ukraine "the breadbasket of Europe") are considering grain export constraints is very worrying, but I was thinking more along the lines of

Monbiot.com: Goodbye, Kind World

We now know, for example, that the Himalayan glaciers which feed the Ganges, the Bramaputra, the Mekong, the Yangtze and the other great Asian rivers are likely to disappear within 40 years. If these rivers dry up during the irrigation season, then the rice production which currently feeds over one third of humanity collapses, and the world goes into net food deficit.


Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 03:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well actually, the voting system only allowed me one vote. But it should be made more flexible: I do believe in the die off for about half of humanity. This is the reason I don't do international charity: I've more or less written off half of humanity. Helping them through present hardship will only allow them to live a miserable life a bit longer until new hardship comes, for which no fat rich westerner will make a check (cos' he'll be in a serious diet himself).

Pierre
by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 04:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is a grim prospect, and I have to say I don't have a reason to doubt you're right.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 04:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I'm a Doomer? ;-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can add China to your list:

[Edited from China Daily

By August 1, 110 million hectares of arable land had been hit by drought, nearly 2 million hectares more than in previous years, according to the latest statistics from the Office of the State Flood Control and Draught Relief Headquarters.

Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, Hunan, and Jilin provinces, and the autonomous regions of the Inner Mongolia and Guangxi Zhuang are the worst hit.

About one-third of arable land in the provinces of Jiangxi, Heilongjiang and Hunan have been affected.

The drought "poses a grave threat" to the autumn harvest Sun said during an inspection tour in Jiangxi yesterday.

Jiangxi is experiencing a drought that is estimated to occur only once in 50 years, with 866,000 hectares of crops affected.

Sun said the drought-stricken regions were the key grain production bases in China.




She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 09:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ou're talking at least a five to ten year period of rapidly rising prices

Was thinking in the same timeframe.

long enough for mechanisms like rationing and biofuels to eke out supplies along with crash programmes to move away from petro-chemical based argiculture.

That again sounds more like could than would (with the exception of biofuels, for which afew et al calculated a very low potential). If the process takes five to ten years, I'd 'count' on leaders to abandon any idea of a crash programme at the first sign of a recession, and keep to it for too long.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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