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Probability of the end of the Earth by human fault 0.00000000000000000000000000000000001 %
Probability for the end of biology on the earth by human fault 0.00000000000000000001 %
Probability of human disappearance of the Earth ata ny point in the future: 100%
Probability of human disappearance in the next 500 years: 0.0000001%
Probability of ending the present capitalism structure in the next 500 years: 100%
Probability of ending any form of captialism in the next 500 years due to enviromental and human constrains: 50%
Probability of smooth or sharp adaptation of capitalism to environemntal constrains: 50%
Probability of strong depression as a way to adapt and change the "capitalism definition" : 30-50 %
Probability of sudden die-off of one-fifth of the human population in the next 500 years: 0.1 %
Probability of population number decline in the next 500 years: 75 %
Probability of ending the knowledge structure together with the capitalism structure: 5 %
Probability of losing agricultural and industrial basic knowledge of our civilization together with capitalism: 0.0001% ... or 0.000000000000000000001%
And the oen everyone is thinking really about.. the combine probability of having either a sharp depression to restructure capitalism or sudden strong enviromental constrains due to global warming or water-biospehre cycles..... I will put my numbers (ideology) at 60 %.
I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact.
See what is happening with AIDS in Africa ; the same could actually happen, as it did with the Plague before the Renaissance.
BTW, the Renaissance was literally a rebirth of population at the end of the middle ages ; it had been almost divided by two after the Plague and the Hundred Years wars. The subsequent social and cultural transformations, as humans became rarer, were major factors in starting up the Renaissance.
Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
And I think that the probability of soem sudden global war among large groups of people is not taht high... but maybe I am being too optimistic.. the thing is that a global war could get ut of control and affect those in command of it.. making it much more less palatable.
ANd massive die off due to economic circumstance are very rare (although it can help to increase the risk of some population.. but frankly most of the people in the world already do).. and regarding soem kind of ecologic cataclism.. well it will be pattern based and local.. so there can be massive disruption ... refugwees... but not reaching the one-fifth threshold.... that was my point..
Of course ... the probability of major climate catastrophe includes an increase in the death rate... but not a massive die-off...... but I do not call 100 million people dying suddenly due to a rise water leves a "massive die off"... because it does not reach the 1 billion people threhold.
In that context, it is not necessary for leaders to pursue a course of action that they see has a serious prospect of causing their injury or death ... it is simply necessary for leader to pursue a course of action where becoming aware of those types of consequences requires people to say what is politically damaging to be heard saying.
I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
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