ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz | 151 comments (151 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (4.00 / 2)

Actually, GW could bring us catastrophic crop failures even (or even more yet !) with rising oil supplies. We are basically seeing it now in Australia, Ukraine, Russia, France: all are at least -25% below expectations, if not more. And the first 3 in my list are talking of closing exports, of course.

Catastrophic crops will kill hundreds of millions in the next few years, but western countries will not come up with a grain-equivalent of the IEA strategic reserves until there is a bad price-rationing in a developed nation. I expect this could occur soon at the US agribusiness level of the supply chain, if we get the same crops for a few more years, keep on the biofuel craze, and the eastern block cuts its exports to keep a lid on domestic prices. Given the job and money weight of US agribusiness, hopefully they will shout out loud enough.

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:02:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

western countries will not come up with a grain-equivalent of the IEA strategic reserv

Have all the invention stores under the CAP been done away with?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:07:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

I heard that we are down to just a few weeks of worldwide supply on all the major grains. I dunno if Europe fares much better. Also, increased consumption in processed food played a part. But essentially yes, the EC always considered the surpluses to be a liability that cost them a lot to keep domestic markets afloat and then they had to give away (and ship !) to starving Africans, whenever the wharehouses were overflowing. As prices went up, the need for subsidy-purchases disappeared, and probably they even thought they were wisely managing taxpayer money when selling remaining stocks at a profit...

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 10:38:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

The fact that so many countries (including Ukraine "the breadbasket of Europe") are considering grain export constraints is very worrying, but I was thinking more along the lines of

Monbiot.com: Goodbye, Kind World

We now know, for example, that the Himalayan glaciers which feed the Ganges, the Bramaputra, the Mekong, the Yangtze and the other great Asian rivers are likely to disappear within 40 years. If these rivers dry up during the irrigation season, then the rice production which currently feeds over one third of humanity collapses, and the world goes into net food deficit.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 03:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

Well actually, the voting system only allowed me one vote. But it should be made more flexible: I do believe in the die off for about half of humanity. This is the reason I don't do international charity: I've more or less written off half of humanity. Helping them through present hardship will only allow them to live a miserable life a bit longer until new hardship comes, for which no fat rich westerner will make a check (cos' he'll be in a serious diet himself).

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 04:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

That is a grim prospect, and I have to say I don't have a reason to doubt you're right.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 04:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 1)

And I'm a Doomer? ;-)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 05:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz (none / 0)

You can add China to your list:

[Edited from China Daily

By August 1, 110 million hectares of arable land had been hit by drought, nearly 2 million hectares more than in previous years, according to the latest statistics from the Office of the State Flood Control and Draught Relief Headquarters.
Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, Hunan, and Jilin provinces, and the autonomous regions of the Inner Mongolia and Guangxi Zhuang are the worst hit.
About one-third of arable land in the provinces of Jiangxi, Heilongjiang and Hunan have been affected.
The drought "poses a grave threat" to the autumn harvest Sun said during an inspection tour in Jiangxi yesterday.
Jiangxi is experiencing a drought that is estimated to occur only once in 50 years, with 866,000 hectares of crops affected.
Sun said the drought-stricken regions were the key grain production bases in China.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Sep 24th, 2007 at 09:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ETopia: a Canticle for Leibowitz | 151 comments (151 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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