I think the civil war option is precisely what "mainstream" opinion has adopted because it allows them to grind the Palestinians into dust and gradually realise the dream of a Greater Israel.

Except that it's not working: More Palestinians are born than get killed. As genocides go, it's one of the least effective ones on record. And various Israeli governments have been trying various tactics and strategies to break Palestinian will for more than half a century by now. So far without success.

And I disagree with you about the costs of the conflict for Israel. Even leaving aside the human cost to entire generations of conscripted Israeli youths - which are substantial - it has made them universally despised in their entire region. And I believe that we are entering an age in which regional institutions will become increasingly important, and the US will become correspondingly less so.

Which regional power bloc will Israel turn to? The EU? Not a chance, unless the Union is going to play even more fast and loose with the whole human rights shtick than we're doing now. Russia? Why should Russia support them? They have lots of friends in the region left over from the Cold War that they could re-activate. China? Again, I fail to see that happening; they'd have to start from scratch in any case, and both geographically, politically and resource-wise, Iran makes a lot more sense as a starting point. The African Union? If they think so, then they're smoking crack. UnaSur? They're a long way away, and I don't really see them having any serious interests in the region in the foreseeable future. The US? Maybe, but talk about putting all your eggs in one basket. And not a particularly solid one at that.

No, Israel will find some accommodation with her neighbours, or Israel will cease to exist. It's their choice, and I just hope they're going to realise that that's the choice they have before it's too late.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.