I disagree with the mainstream analysis and agree with yours - except perhaps the last paragraph bit about Israel ceasing to exist,  I can't see any scenario short of WW3 under which Israel would disappear.  That is the canard extremists use to scare the moderates with to prevent rather than encourage any accommodation with Palestinians.  The reality is Israel is overwhelmingly dominant, militarily, with a seriously large nuclear arsenal.  Their problem is the low level suicide bomber stuff.  All the Arab states (with the exception of safely distant Iran) know and accept this.  The argument is no longer about Israel, but about what kind of Israel...

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."